UiPath is proving it can grow again while becoming profitable, and a round of layoffs could take the stock from the $10s to the $20s. Revenue rose 17% year over year, up from 13% or less in recent quarters. x.com
M Mohan
Private Equity at IncVangal, Former Microsoft Ventures Director
UiPath's agentic AI push is showing up in its deals and results. AI featured in 18 of its top 20 deals last quarter; Q2 revenue was $410M, up 13% and ahead of guidance, Cloud ARR passed $1.3B, up 19%, and GAAP profit ran for a fourth straight quarter. Management raised revenue guidance to $1.789–1.794B. Price is pushing back over an inverse head-and-shoulders neckline, with the 200 EMA underneath; $12.83 is the trigger, with chart targets at $13.95, $14.94, $16.68, $18.01 and $18.77. x.com
UiPath offers good risk/reward because its investor day confirmed the narrative of rising AI demand, higher retention and growing opportunity, even without the acceleration the market wanted. That lack of acceleration was already known after earnings. The stock's continued weakness reflects healthy market mechanics rather than a broken thesis, and the aim is to buy the best risk/reward, not the best stocks. x.com
UiPath is a low-quality stock growing barely 10%, and no such stock deserves a re-rating. A thesis that relies on a re-rate admits the fundamentals can't justify a big jump and hopes investors will simply pay more for more of the same. The promised re-rating still has not shown up. x.com
UiPath's late-July selloff to about $10.20 came from tech-wide risk sentiment and weakness at peers Pega and IBM, not company news, leaving it at about 15x forward earnings. UiPath has moved from legacy RPA to agentic automation, opening a new growth market, and now delivers full-year GAAP profitability, double-digit revenue growth, gross margins above 80% and positive free cash flow. The $10 level is key support, and sizable short interest could fuel sharp rallies on any positive catalyst. … Show more
UiPath's Maestro is starting to show up in deals, though not yet in growth. At the Citi conference, 18 of its top 20 quarterly deals included broader platform and AI features and were 4-6x larger than usual, $1M+ customers grew 21%, and net dollar retention rose to 109%. Maestro aims to orchestrate AI agents, robots, people and apps across whole processes, an edge with regulated enterprises. Outcome-based pricing could expand the opportunity; the September 22 Investor Day is the next test. x.com
UiPath looks expensive against its cash earnings at $16.01. It trades at 57x cash earnings and 50x next year's, versus the roughly 30x software companies usually get. Fair value is $9.34 to $11.89, about 30x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, so the stock sits 35% above the high end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, not fundamental work. x.com
UiPath offers a decent but not compelling upside of about 50%, with far better opportunities elsewhere heading into FY27-28. FY27 ARR is just above $2B, and 14% growth would bring about $2.36B in FY28. At a roughly 27.5% FCF margin, that is about $561M of free cash flow, up from $352M in FY26, and its historical 20x multiple implies about an $11.2B market cap versus $7.3B today. x.com
Microsoft's AI ROI is massive because it expects to sustain its current 18% year-over-year growth with 27% fewer employees. It is cutting its workforce by 27%, undercutting claims that AI has no ROI. x.com
UiPath shares are unlikely to go up because a 34% short float, especially heavy for a stock priced around $12, will hold the price down. Holders should move on. x.com
ServiceNow's slowing contracted-revenue growth suggests agentic AI and growing open-source alternatives may be reducing the need for its products. Q3 operating margin fell to 9.4% from 16.8% a year earlier, net income dropped, and cRPO growth slowed from 25% to 20.5%; Q4 guidance implies 18.5%. x.com