The Few Bets That Matter
Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure
UiPath offers good risk/reward because its investor day confirmed the narrative of rising AI demand, higher retention and growing opportunity, even without the acceleration the market wanted. That lack of acceleration was already known after earnings. The stock's continued weakness reflects healthy market mechanics rather than a broken thesis, and the aim is to buy the best risk/reward, not the best stocks. x.com
UiPath's 26% drop in a week is profit-taking, not a broken thesis. After a 45% run into strong resistance, the market used short-term ARR deceleration as a pretext to sell, despite good earnings and strong guidance. Bulls should step up at support and the trend resume, putting the stock above $20 sooner than expected. x.com
UiPath's late-July selloff to about $10.20 came from tech-wide risk sentiment and weakness at peers Pega and IBM, not company news, leaving it at about 15x forward earnings. UiPath has moved from legacy RPA to agentic automation, opening a new growth market, and now delivers full-year GAAP profitability, double-digit revenue growth, gross margins above 80% and positive free cash flow. The $10 level is key support, and sizable short interest could fuel sharp rallies on any positive catalyst. … Show more
UiPath's agentic AI push is showing up in its deals and results. AI featured in 18 of its top 20 deals last quarter; Q2 revenue was $410M, up 13% and ahead of guidance, Cloud ARR passed $1.3B, up 19%, and GAAP profit ran for a fourth straight quarter. Management raised revenue guidance to $1.789–1.794B. Price is pushing back over an inverse head-and-shoulders neckline, with the 200 EMA underneath; $12.83 is the trigger, with chart targets at $13.95, $14.94, $16.68, $18.01 and $18.77. x.com
UiPath may carry the highest business-model risk of any SaaS company because LLM agents with computer use compete directly with its robotic process automation. Rivals include Anthropic and OpenAI themselves. Its base is sticky for now, with 97% gross retention, regulated large-enterprise customers and long contracts, giving it time to sell AI tools. Still, it would be very surprising if gross retention stays in the high 90s, and the 2x EV/ARR multiple reflects the threat. x.com
UiPath's Maestro is starting to show up in deals, though not yet in growth. At the Citi conference, 18 of its top 20 quarterly deals included broader platform and AI features and were 4-6x larger than usual, $1M+ customers grew 21%, and net dollar retention rose to 109%. Maestro aims to orchestrate AI agents, robots, people and apps across whole processes, an edge with regulated enterprises. Outcome-based pricing could expand the opportunity; the September 22 Investor Day is the next test. x.com
UiPath, Zeta Global and ServiceNow are discounted because the market treats AI as a pure threat rather than a product accelerator, as it once did with Google, now up 120% this year. They should rerate once investors see that AI makes their products better, faster and more valuable, and that AI still needs real enterprise workflows, data, compliance, automation and execution layers to be useful. x.com
UiPath is a low-quality stock growing barely 10%, and no such stock deserves a re-rating. A thesis that relies on a re-rate admits the fundamentals can't justify a big jump and hopes investors will simply pay more for more of the same. The promised re-rating still has not shown up. x.com
UiPath is proving it can grow again while becoming profitable, and a round of layoffs could take the stock from the $10s to the $20s. Revenue rose 17% year over year, up from 13% or less in recent quarters. x.com
UiPath looks close to a bottom after building a large three-year base, undercutting support and reclaiming it, with bullish divergence on both 5- and 14-period RSI. Last month it partnered with Databricks to connect enterprise data directly into its agentic automation workflows, and it also has a robotics angle. x.com x.com
UiPath has no real earnings, barely any growth and a ridiculous valuation. x.com
UiPath will be among the AI winners because AI agents cannot replace everything. Companies still need deterministic automation that is reliable, controllable and free of constant token consumption, and UiPath connects that world with agentic AI. After Q2 FY27 the case is more convincing than ever. x.com
