The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Gorilla Technology's financing was needed to grow enough to fulfill already signed contracts. Its $180 million cash balance versus a $205 million market value and the roughly $1.4 billion Freyr agreement still make the selloff look excessive; the over $10 billion qualified pipeline remains unsigned. x.com x.comÂ
Gorilla Technology's cash and Freyr AI infrastructure agreement dwarf its market value, making it perhaps the market's biggest mistake right now. It has $180 million in cash against a $205 million market cap and a roughly $1.4 billion agreement over three years. In January, management described a qualified pipeline of more than $10 billion, but it remains unsigned. x.comÂ
Gorilla Technology's valuation looks very inexpensive on sales, but dilution and weak profits threaten what shareholders capture. Its roughly $279M market cap is about 1.4x guided 2026 revenue above $200M and roughly 0.6x its $450-500M 2027 target; shares outstanding rose about 63% year over year, while H1 adjusted EBITDA turned negative. This remains a high-risk, high-reward opportunity only if growth becomes sustainable profits without excessive further dilution. x.comÂ
Gorilla Technology has become an AI infrastructure business the market still prices as a security-camera company. A five-year AI compute contract worth about $2.5 billion in Indonesia is five times its roughly $493 million market cap, alongside a $2 billion Supermicro arrangement in India and a planned 200MW Thai campus. Q1 revenue rose 55% with positive operating cash flow, and Q2 guidance of $44 million tops the Street's $34 million. Risks: an undisclosed counterparty and dilution. x.comÂ
Gorilla Technology's announced deal sizes are the wrong anchor: project values above $8 billion, including the $2.8 billion Yotta Phase 2, sit against $101 million of 2025 revenue, and its take after NVIDIA hardware passthrough is undisclosed. CEO Jay Chandan's multi-billion-dollar ONE AMAZON deal has shown no material revenue and quietly left the investor story. Risk-reward was better at $9-11 than at $15; a much higher guide or on-time Yotta and Thailand delivery would change that. x.com x.comÂ
Gorilla Technology looks due for a rerating as a $432M company expected to deliver at least $200M of revenue in 2026 and keeps raising guidance. The next leg targets $400M-500M, much of it recurring. Management says forecasts rest on signed contracts with set amounts and timelines, agreed only after securing hardware, and more signed contracts await further GPU supply. It will keep raising debt, but the upside is significant. x.com x.comÂ
Gorilla Technology trades as if nobody reads its filings, and that disconnect is the opportunity. It reports a $7 billion pipeline, 2025 revenue of $101 million, up 35%, and 2026 guidance of $137-200 million. It has alliances with NVIDIA, HPE, Intel and IBM and is deploying more than 640 NVIDIA B200 servers in India. x.comÂ
WhiteFiber's ability to fund its ramp without dilution was the key test for the stock, and a convertible announcement worth about a quarter of its market cap, flagged by @OG_PViews, cuts against it. Signed contracts help, including a ten-year, $865M NC-1 deal and a $160M Paris deployment, and retrofit builds cost up to 40% less than greenfield. But access to capital is the main hurdle, with a $100M term loan from majority owner Bit Digital, and AI managements tend to dilute given heavy capex. … Show more
Voyager Technologies' nearly 20% drop on a $350M convertible note offering looks excessive for a business that was always going to need substantial capital. It is fundamentally capital intensive, so if it executes this won't be its last raise. Dilution matters a lot, but it shouldn't surprise anyone here. @wealthmatica, who flagged the stock, senses a buying opportunity soon. x.comÂ
Super Micro is burning shareholder money with a $7B equity and equity-linked financing. The company says proceeds will fund components for about $39 billion of AI server orders from more than 20 customers, but needing outside money to fill orders is either a sign of a very good business or what it hopes investors will believe. x.com x.com x.comÂ
TeraWulf rushed to sell more shares right after breaking out above $20, despite a first-quarter miss. It is offering $800 million of common stock, plus up to $120 million more for underwriters, to help fund a data center in Hawesville, Kentucky. Preliminary Q1 revenue of $30-35 million fell short of the $39.17 million consensus, with adjusted EBITDA of just $0-3 million. x.comÂ
IREN is unlikely to raise FY2027 capex to $25B+ without one or two large deals that cover 30-40% or more of it. It still needs to announce a big deal with a big prepayment to fund that capex, unless it plans another large share offering. x.com x.comÂ
