Stocker-Man
Long-Term Growth Investor & Swing Trader, Public Investing Journal
Gorilla Technology's valuation looks very inexpensive on sales, but dilution and weak profits threaten what shareholders capture. Its roughly $279M market cap is about 1.4x guided 2026 revenue above $200M and roughly 0.6x its $450-500M 2027 target; shares outstanding rose about 63% year over year, while H1 adjusted EBITDA turned negative. This remains a high-risk, high-reward opportunity only if growth becomes sustainable profits without excessive further dilution. x.com
Gorilla Technology's new multi-year AI infrastructure contract matters most because it comes from a repeat customer, validating that customers see value in its technology. The deal, worth tens of millions, expands work with a national-level Taiwan customer for whom it previously deployed mission-critical infrastructure, adding NVIDIA B300 compute, AI analytics, data integration and three years of support. Its multi-billion-dollar projects will determine how big it can become. x.com
Gorilla Technology's financing was needed to grow enough to fulfill already signed contracts. Its $180 million cash balance versus a $205 million market value and the roughly $1.4 billion Freyr agreement still make the selloff look excessive; the over $10 billion qualified pipeline remains unsigned. x.com x.com
Gorilla Technology trades as if nobody reads its filings, and that disconnect is the opportunity. It reports a $7 billion pipeline, 2025 revenue of $101 million, up 35%, and 2026 guidance of $137-200 million. It has alliances with NVIDIA, HPE, Intel and IBM and is deploying more than 640 NVIDIA B200 servers in India. x.com
Gorilla Technology's announced deal sizes are the wrong anchor: project values above $8 billion, including the $2.8 billion Yotta Phase 2, sit against $101 million of 2025 revenue, and its take after NVIDIA hardware passthrough is undisclosed. CEO Jay Chandan's multi-billion-dollar ONE AMAZON deal has shown no material revenue and quietly left the investor story. Risk-reward was better at $9-11 than at $15; a much higher guide or on-time Yotta and Thailand delivery would change that. x.com x.com
Gorilla Technology has become an AI infrastructure business the market still prices as a security-camera company. A five-year AI compute contract worth about $2.5 billion in Indonesia is five times its roughly $493 million market cap, alongside a $2 billion Supermicro arrangement in India and a planned 200MW Thai campus. Q1 revenue rose 55% with positive operating cash flow, and Q2 guidance of $44 million tops the Street's $34 million. Risks: an undisclosed counterparty and dilution. x.com
Gorilla Technology looks due for a rerating as a $432M company expected to deliver at least $200M of revenue in 2026 and keeps raising guidance. The next leg targets $400M-500M, much of it recurring. Management says forecasts rest on signed contracts with set amounts and timelines, agreed only after securing hardware, and more signed contracts await further GPU supply. It will keep raising debt, but the upside is significant. x.com x.com
Celestica looks unusually inexpensive relative to its growth. Its enterprise value is 0.99 times next-twelve-month revenue against 58.7% revenue growth, yielding a 0.0168 growth-adjusted revenue multiple; few companies compare better. Its 14.7 times forward earnings against 69.8% earnings growth gives a 0.21 PEG, below the conventional 1.0 fair-value heuristic. x.com x.com x.com
Ondas's share-funded acquisitions look very risky without a strong core business to make them work. It has raised $1.8B selling shares, yet roughly $1.4B sits in cash and short-term investments. One customer provides 55% of revenue, and $252M plus $742M in stock spent on acquisitions has not produced big revenue; continued raises and management pay add to the concern. x.com
Toast's revenue growth and profitability should eventually lift its shares, but stock compensation has diluted shareholders despite those gains. Revenue has grown 250% since the IPO; shares outstanding rose from 502.5 million to 578 million, or 15%, with an estimated $2.4-3 billion in stock compensation. Management needs to deliver a 30% net profit margin ASAP to prove it can turn revenue growth into earnings for shareholders. Buybacks are now reducing the share count, which should help a lot. … Show more
Marblegate Capital's growth is too thin to absorb its new dilution. It grows high single digits mostly by pushing price, and now plans to give up about half of that through dilution as stock compensation rises from 1% to 3–4%, an extra $40M in pay just for being public, per @roojoo3. It trades at about 12x 2027 earnings, and no one cares for a reason. x.com
Schmid Group's turnaround is real, but at $6.87 it carries mega-cap multiples for a sub-scale company with going-concern doubt and a dilution overhang. Fully diluted it trades at 6.5x EV/sales and 54x EV/EBITDA on the bull guide, with shares possibly rising from 43M to 102M, though that is a worst-case ceiling. Management missed its FY25 revenue guide by 7% and EBITDA margin by 6 points, and now guides FY26 to €100M+ at 12%. H2 2025 did deliver €50M at 35% gross margin. x.com x.com x.com
