Toast is worth at least $40 because its proven vertical playbook leaves room to double its 20% share of US SMB and mid-market restaurants. It is expanding into food and beverage retail and abroad, and over half its locations adopted the Toast IQ AI assistant within four months. 2025 revenue rose 24% to $6.15B, ARR 26% to $2.05B, GAAP net income hit $342M and free cash flow $608M. Risks include competition, SMB exposure, lending credit risk and memory costs on hardware. x.com 

ServiceNow's costs are rising far faster than revenue without the RPO acceleration management promised. Q3 revenue rose 21%, while total cost of revenue climbed 56% and net income fell 45%; stock compensation appears to be using about half of free cash flow. The selloff looks deserved, though the shares are now closer to fair value. Sustainable margins and measurable returns remain the test. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Toast no longer looks like a business that is accelerating or inflecting higher. Growth appears to be stabilizing around the low-20% range, with a real risk that it moderates further, which justifies exiting despite a year spent defending the thesis and redeploying the capital to other opportunities. x.com 

CrowdStrike's growth is too slow to justify its valuation. Its forward P/E has climbed to about 190, while stock-based compensation exceeds operating earnings, so reported free cash flow margins do not show what the business actually earns. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Toast looks cheap against its earnings at 21x next year's estimates, versus the roughly 40x software companies usually get. Applying 40x to next year's $1.73 EPS, give or take 12%, gives a fair value of $60.93-$77.54, leaving the $36.30 price about 40% below where fair starts. The read leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 119% above trailing, and is based on valuation levels only, not fundamental work. x.com 

Fintech's slide looks like a broad rotation out of the sector rather than isolated company weakness, as investors buy the largest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure buildout. SoFi is down 43% year to date, with similar weakness at Klarna, Shift4 and Toast, as capital leaves fintech, software and emerging markets for semiconductors, networking, memory and AI infrastructure names such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and Nebius. SoFi CEO Anthony Noto said the decline bothers him. x.com 

HubSpot could have bottomed because its business held up through the stock's collapse while buybacks cut its share count. Q2 revenue grew 19.8% and free cash flow 44% year over year; net shares fell 4.4% last quarter. Shares trade at 17.5x free cash flow versus a two-year mean of 45x. All four models now agree. The 12-month bear, base and bull paths are $274, $317 and $360, respectively; November 4 Q3 results are the next test. x.com 

TeamSpirit's recurring-revenue growth and improving operating margin make its earnings look great. NNARR grew over 30% and ARR is growing in the teens. Management is refocusing on the stock and starting its first buyback beyond purchasing shares sold by the founder; partnerships with Nomura, Workday, SAP and Oracle are starting to inflect. x.com 

Credo's selloff looks way overdone after great results and guidance. It just grew revenue 115% with 68% gross margins and $1.4B of cash, and last quarter's GAAP net income was still $169M. Stock compensation and amortization run about $60M a quarter, roughly 12% of $479M revenue, and shrink as a share each time revenue doubles; even on GAAP earnings, a high-50s trailing multiple is covered by growth. Its acquisition should add future share and growth, with slightly lower margins in the interim. … Show more

Palantir's share price demands unusually fast cash and profit growth despite its strong business. At roughly $210, it implies 48.5% annual growth for five years; at 32% annual growth, the shares would be worth $96.64. It is a Watch, not a Buy at today's prices. Q2 sales rose 93% and cash flow after employee stock pay was $2.52 billion over 12 months, but government concentration, cancellable contracts and rising stock pay remain risks. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com