Biotech2k
Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery
Toast is worth at least $40 because its proven vertical playbook leaves room to double its 20% share of US SMB and mid-market restaurants. It is expanding into food and beverage retail and abroad, and over half its locations adopted the Toast IQ AI assistant within four months. 2025 revenue rose 24% to $6.15B, ARR 26% to $2.05B, GAAP net income hit $342M and free cash flow $608M. Risks include competition, SMB exposure, lending credit risk and memory costs on hardware. x.comÂ
Toast's revenue growth and profitability should eventually lift its shares, but stock compensation has diluted shareholders despite those gains. Revenue has grown 250% since the IPO; shares outstanding rose from 502.5 million to 578 million, or 15%, with an estimated $2.4-3 billion in stock compensation. Management needs to deliver a 30% net profit margin ASAP to prove it can turn revenue growth into earnings for shareholders. Buybacks are now reducing the share count, which should help a lot. … Show more
Toast looks cheap against its earnings at 21x next year's estimates, versus the roughly 40x software companies usually get. Applying 40x to next year's $1.73 EPS, give or take 12%, gives a fair value of $60.93-$77.54, leaving the $36.30 price about 40% below where fair starts. The read leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 119% above trailing, and is based on valuation levels only, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
Toast no longer looks like a business that is accelerating or inflecting higher. Growth appears to be stabilizing around the low-20% range, with a real risk that it moderates further, which justifies exiting despite a year spent defending the thesis and redeploying the capital to other opportunities. x.comÂ
Toast shows institutional accumulation that makes the stock exploitable. This year's candle is flipping the 2023 range high into support, and a $43B high-volume candle in the first half of 2026 mirrors last year's $71B one. Institutions bought heavily around $28 and earlier liked it at $40. x.comÂ
Toast should be a key enabler and provider of AI and robotics automation, because businesses that tightly integrate hardware and software will be tech's structural winners. Enabling massive cost savings for customers gives it a big value-capture opportunity. x.comÂ
Domino's Pizza is a global logistics, software and franchise platform whose economics improve as the network grows. Franchisees fund expansion while Domino's collects high-margin royalties, and scale brings data, ad efficiency and buying power; it has beaten Alphabet over 20 years. As a rough thought exercise, 10% annual growth from about $17 EPS implies over $100 in 20 years, and at 15-25x a business potentially worth about $2,000 a share. Franchisee economics and aggregators are risks. x.com … Show more
Dine Brands looks like a bargain at 8.1x earnings versus a normal 13.7x, with 12% consensus growth in 2027, leaving more room to run. Per the activist investor that took a stake, Applebee's and IHOP now have to prove the recovery is real through traffic, margins and cash flow. x.comÂ
