Toast's revenue growth and profitability should eventually lift its shares, but stock compensation has diluted shareholders despite those gains. Revenue has grown 250% since the IPO; shares outstanding rose from 502.5 million to 578 million, or 15%, with an estimated $2.4-3 billion in stock compensation. Management needs to deliver a 30% net profit margin ASAP to prove it can turn revenue growth into earnings for shareholders. Buybacks are now reducing the share count, which should help a lot. … Show more

Toast is worth at least $40 because its proven vertical playbook leaves room to double its 20% share of US SMB and mid-market restaurants. It is expanding into food and beverage retail and abroad, and over half its locations adopted the Toast IQ AI assistant within four months. 2025 revenue rose 24% to $6.15B, ARR 26% to $2.05B, GAAP net income hit $342M and free cash flow $608M. Risks include competition, SMB exposure, lending credit risk and memory costs on hardware. x.com 

Toast no longer looks like a business that is accelerating or inflecting higher. Growth appears to be stabilizing around the low-20% range, with a real risk that it moderates further, which justifies exiting despite a year spent defending the thesis and redeploying the capital to other opportunities. x.com 

Toast looks cheap against its earnings at 21x next year's estimates, versus the roughly 40x software companies usually get. Applying 40x to next year's $1.73 EPS, give or take 12%, gives a fair value of $60.93-$77.54, leaving the $36.30 price about 40% below where fair starts. The read leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 119% above trailing, and is based on valuation levels only, not fundamental work. x.com 

Ouster should go much higher in coming years as physical AI arrives, and it just announced the first color lidar. Per @nachunja, it has 10,000 customers with only a few in production, including Google, Amazon, Caterpillar, John Deere and Anduril, and is the only Western lidar company at scale and the only Blue UAS-certified one. It has a healthy balance sheet with profitability near. It is one of two favorite robotics small caps, alongside Vishay Precision Group, and worth adding on pullbacks. … Show more

Symbotic is one of the stocks Wall Street is still underestimating, bringing AI-powered warehouse robotics at Walmart scale. x.com 

Intuit is well placed for a software rally, with EPS likely to accelerate and its P/E multiple to recover. Starting a business has never been easier, and those businesses need accounting software. They won't vibe code their own, since it is a small cost that must be tax compliant and linked to governments for automatic filing, and vibe-coded rivals risk security breaches. Businesses are also subscribing to AI features inside accounting software, such as automatic cost classification. x.com