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Nicholas Mugalli

Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy

9 Aug, 10:47Latest

ASML remains the undisputed lithography champion because DUV and EUV scarcity will ultimately be the real bottleneck to scaling AI compute. Wall Street sold semicap on a Shanghai firm building five 2008-vintage DUV tools, which threaten approximately none of ASML's moat this decade. Meanwhile, Situational Awareness put $500 million into Source Foundry, a startup aiming to break ASML's monopoly by redesigning chip manufacturing. Whoever breaks that monopoly wins, but it is a tough race. x.com

ASML

27 Jul, 16:27

ASML remains the main lithography bottleneck for years; China's domestic DUV machine threatens it commercially by roughly nothing before 2030. Per The Information, a Shanghai company began limited production of about 5 immersion DUV units this year, targeting 20 by 2027, versus ASML's 100-plus a year. The tools sit near ASML's 2008 level, rely on foreign optics, light sources and parts that controls can reach, and cannot match EUV at 3nm and below. The selloff shows fragile confidence. x.com x.com

ASML

Pythia Cap

Equity Investing & Market Satire

27 Jul

ASML

China's homegrown DUV tool poses little threat to ASML because it remains almost 20 years behind. Per the Financial Times description, the immersion DUV system SMIC is testing resembles ASML's 2008 NXT:1950i for 32nm-class processes, and having a tool doesn't mean matching defect rates or throughput, as Canon and Nikon show. China has stayed roughly 20 years behind for a decade and is not meaningfully accelerating against ASML. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Tech Fund

Engineer & Portfolio Manager, Author of Tech Investments Newsletter

15 Oct

ASML

ASML's EUV moat is hard to replicate because making EUV light is only one part of a production tool: sustained fab uptime matters, and Zeiss optics are the harder moat. Langdao Silex showed a Chinese light source with 90% local components but disclosed no power figure. ASML's production sources run at about 600W; its February demo reached 1,000W with a path to 1,500W. Langdao staff put mass production three to five years away. x.com

Thierry from arvy

CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing

27 Jul

ASML

ASML faces moat erosion now that China has a homegrown alternative to its machines. The Information reports a state-backed Shanghai company has started mass-producing DUV lithography tools. Chinese fabs stockpiling older DUV tools had become a major revenue driver, with China at 36% of sales in 2024 and 29% last year. Output is tiny, about five machines this year and maybe twenty next. But once a second supplier exists, the question shifts from "no alternative" to "for how long." x.com

Damnang

Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research

27 Jul

ASML

BESI.AS

The selloff in ASML and BESI on China's new immersion DUV tools is an overreaction with minimal real impact. China plans five units this year and 20 in 2027 for SMIC, Hua Hong and CXMT, under 4% of ASML's roughly 130 annual immersion DUV shipments. DUV can make 7nm chips via multi-patterning, but at higher cost, lower capacity and more alignment errors, and EUV is a fundamentally different technology. Nikon and Canon face the most pressure. x.com

Ben Pouladian

Founder of BEP Research, AI Compute Economics

28 Jul

ASML

ASML's 6% drop on a report of Chinese immersion DUV mass production is no cause for panic. Per a Chinese semiconductor expert, the first-gen tool is five or six generations behind ASML's 1980-class machines, which Chinese fabs already stockpile, and SMEE's six dry DUV tools sold in 2023 never ran production. No Western fab is likely to qualify a Huawei-linked tool, the lost revenue was already exiting under export controls, and lithography isn't China's binding constraint. x.com x.com

Sean Sharpe

Catalyst Swing Trader, Author of Stocks in Play Newsletter

27 Jul

ASML

ASML could break down from here on the China news. x.com

Audit The Herd

CPA, Corporate Finance Professional

15 Oct

ASML

ASML remains essential even if AI capital spending slows: advanced chips cannot be made without its lithography equipment, for which there is no alternative. It belongs among the infrastructure businesses that can work through a pause in the cycle. x.com

Ben Bajarin

CEO & Principal Analyst of Creative Strategies, Semiconductors-to-Software Research

14 Oct

ASML

ASML is getting paid more for each tool, moving beyond proving it can build enough of them. Q3 2026 brings pricing power and an order book reaching 2030; the house view has strengthened, with high conviction. x.com

Pegasus

Long/Short Equity Investor

19 Aug

ASML

ASML may have topped, since semicap thrives on shortage and would be hit hardest in an overbuild. Then earnings acceleration from memory and fab projects stops or reverses; the labs' leading-edge chase may be at its apex, positioning is bullish and the moat is threatened. Bullishness on Korean, US and Taiwan fab projects makes sense for now. But if the cycle top is confirmed and labs change how they chase the frontier, or token deflation kills some labs, the shortage can end sooner. x.com x.com … Show more

Adam Patti

CEO of VistaShares, Founder of IndexIQ

14 Oct

AIS

Requests for ASML lithography-tool slots as far out as 2030 signal years of locked-in downstream AI infrastructure spending plans. ASML's machines come before the chips, making those customer requests a clearer early demand signal than chip headlines. x.com

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