Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Intel heads into earnings with strong capex tailwinds pointing its way. SpaceX raised $80 billion in its IPO, much of which is going to Intel, and Tesla raised capex with much of it also headed to Intel. Alphabet's higher capex is bullish for all chip trades, and every AI name reporting so far has blown expectations away. x.comÂ
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Keybanc's reported supply-chain indications of foundry commitments make an Intel customer-win announcement on the upcoming earnings call seem possible. Those indications name Broadcom for networking switches and Google for server CPUs. Intel raised capital after management said exceptional success might require more investment. This is a trading view with discipline taking precedence over conviction. x.comÂ
Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.comÂ
Intel is set to explode as it gets pulled into the biggest AI and robotics buildout through a reported team-up with SpaceX, Tesla and xAI. While written off as old tech, it quietly rebuilt by cutting costs, reshoring fabs and securing government backing for US chip leadership, and smart money began accumulating in 2024. x.comÂ
Intel's latest earnings call confirmed it is executing on the three semiconductor bottlenecks it addresses, CPUs, advanced packaging and fab capacity. Beyond the obvious CPU shortage, its higher 2026 capex is a great sign, since Intel has often called a capex lift the key signal of 14A adoption. x.comÂ
Intel's lack of real AI or foundry plans is showing in weak Q4 guidance. It forecasts $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue versus $17.08 billion consensus and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 versus $0.44, despite Q3 EPS of $0.52 and revenue of $16.51 billion beating expectations. x.comÂ
Intel at $112 is an opportunity not to miss, with a $150-plus target by year end, after earlier chances in Micron, Nokia and Arm. It holds $98 billion of backlog orders for 2027-2031, reports 180% annual revenue growth and has $3 billion of cash reserves. x.comÂ
Intel is the favorite semiconductor pick as value keeps accruing to AI's infrastructure layer, and its $20B equity offering clears the funding overhang despite about 5% dilution. Agentic AI's impact has at least a year to run: token production is up about 7.5x since January, OpenAI and Anthropic's combined run rate is near $100B, and big-cloud revenue growth hit 43% with margins expanding. Risks include 5.3% long-bond yields and weak mid-term-year seasonality, so add hedges and be selective. … Show more
Intel's high valuation is hard to justify while its foundry turnaround remains unproven. At about 59x forward earnings, nearly three times TSMC's 19x, Intel has slower projected revenue growth; its foundry lost $2.09 billion in Q2 2026, while TSMC's Q3 operating margin was 58.7%. A politician's stock purchase alone does not make Intel a buy. x.com x.comÂ
Intel is a leading semiconductor name that benefits massively from US government investment and a likely Terafab collaboration with Tesla and SpaceX's xAI. Its chart is forming a textbook high-tight flag. x.comÂ
