Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.com 

Intel's valuation is at all-time highs while its business condition is near all-time lows. It is more a CPU company than a foundry, and TSMC holds huge scale, capex and process advantages while building substantial US capacity, so the recent rally makes no sense. x.com  x.com 

Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com  x.com 

Intel looks expensive even against sales despite its earlier revenue recovery: at 10x sales versus roughly 5x for chipmakers, the screen puts fair value at $40.45-$51.48 against $104.70. This adds a sales-based valuation warning to the prior earnings concern; it is a levels-only comparison using reported figures, not fundamental diligence. x.com 

Intel is overvalued after running up about 5x from $20, with more capex, low operating margins and a run-up driven largely by Trump's promotion rather than fundamentals. TSMC earns over 30% operating margins and is ahead of schedule in Arizona, so Intel has no US fab monopoly. Trump leaves office in two years, and these fabs are unlikely to meaningfully improve on existing 2nm yields. It could still be a great trade. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Intel's growing server profit gives its recovery firmer support, though Q4's margin reset limits extrapolation. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3B; foundry losses narrowed to $1.85B but remain substantial. Management guides Q4 non-GAAP gross margin to 38% from 44.1% in Q3, while client sales fell 5%. The 14A milestone alone does not establish external foundry commitments. x.com 

Intel's lack of real AI or foundry plans is showing in weak Q4 guidance. It forecasts $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue versus $17.08 billion consensus and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 versus $0.44, despite Q3 EPS of $0.52 and revenue of $16.51 billion beating expectations. x.com 

Intel's turnaround is real, but its valuation already assumes a lot goes right while Foundry has much to prove. Revenue grew 25% to $16.1 billion, data center revenue jumped 59%, and the CEO says Intel can meet only about half of CPU demand, with ASPs up 48%. But Foundry lost $2.1 billion on $5.8 billion of revenue, only $293 million of it external, with no high-volume marquee customer. After a roughly 225% run to $120, Intel is worth about $634 billion, already paying for much of the comeback. … Show more

Intel's poor EMIB-T packaging yields threaten its plans for next year. Per a confidential source, yields are very poor, and EMIB-T may now slip into the following year. The 14A PDK 0.9 matters more for the long term. Intel remains a very strong long-term bull case because yields should improve, though setbacks can arise along the way; whether to avoid this near-term risk is a personal judgment. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Intel's valuation remains stretched even on improving earnings: it is expected to earn $6B in net income in 2026, yet its forward P/E is still close to 100. Per Charlie Bilello, Intel now trades above 11x sales, its highest since 2000, versus under 2x a year ago, after losing $3.4B over the last year. x.com