Schulz Duggan
AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing
Intel's growing server profit gives its recovery firmer support, though Q4's margin reset limits extrapolation. Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3B; foundry losses narrowed to $1.85B but remain substantial. Management guides Q4 non-GAAP gross margin to 38% from 44.1% in Q3, while client sales fell 5%. The 14A milestone alone does not establish external foundry commitments. x.com
The market overpriced Intel's downside from Elon Musk's Terafab talks with TSMC, which erased about $16B of Intel's value. Musk called them 'discussions', with no agreement, fab role or timeline, and quoted a post calling TSMC's contribution 'basically supplemental'. Intel's link is more concrete: Musk said in April that Terafab plans to use Intel's 14A, and a fab sized for 1TW of compute a year has room for several suppliers. TSMC named main provider, or a 14A delay, would change this. x.com
Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com x.com
Intel's near-term growth is constrained by a Kiryat Gat factory blast and memory-driven PC weakness. The weak Q4 outlook calls for answers: the blast looks set to cut roughly $300 million of revenue in Q4 and could have a similar impact in Q1, limiting data-center growth. Fab ownership gives Intel pricing power and enterprise demand is strong; external foundry customers would add another tailwind if won. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said Nova Lake will allow Intel to take back share. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Intel's lack of real AI or foundry plans is showing in weak Q4 guidance. It forecasts $15 billion to $16 billion of revenue versus $17.08 billion consensus and non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 versus $0.44, despite Q3 EPS of $0.52 and revenue of $16.51 billion beating expectations. x.com
Intel delivered the quarter its turnaround case needed, beating its own guidance and the Street on both lines. The headline GAAP loss comes from a non-cash charge on the US government's escrowed shares that grows as the stock rises; the core business is firmly profitable again, with AI compute demand lifting CPUs, advanced packaging and foundry. Catalysts include Xeon 6+ on 18A, Panther Lake in high-volume manufacturing, 18A-P in risk production and over 130 customers testing Core Ultra. x.com
US sovereign AI and defense demand for domestically made compute will bring Intel most, if not all, US semiconductor designers as customers. PC weakness also lets Intel shift wafers to higher-margin server CPUs, but that takes a few quarters; capacity to ship more server CPUs is the limiter. The $240 billion 2030 server CPU market forecast is a stretch case, not the base case, versus roughly $200 billion consensus. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Intel's recovery looks fragile because PC softness could persist through at least the first half of 2027. Management's weak Q4 outlook suggests the pressure may outlast one disappointing forecast. x.com
Server CPU demand amid AI buildouts gives Intel's upcoming Q3 earnings a fundamental role in its bounce setup. The market expects roughly $16.5 billion in revenue; a potential triple bottom at $87 coincides with the 200 EMA, making a decent bounce highly likely from here. JPMorgan upgraded Intel from Underweight to Neutral, citing better execution and valuation. Losing the 200 EMA would invalidate the pattern and be a significant bearish signal. x.com
Intel's AI-driven demand is producing its fastest growth in 15 years. Q2 revenue rose 25% to $16.1B, non-GAAP EPS was $0.42 versus $0.21 expected, and gross margin recovered to 41.8%. Data Center & AI grew 59% and Foundry 31%. Q3 guidance is $15.8–16.8B in revenue. Upside target is $139.27 with support at $105.66. x.com
Intel's solid miss fits a longstanding negative view of the stock. ZeroHedge reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of $0.25 versus $0.45 expected and revenue guidance of $15 billion to $16 billion versus $17.29 billion expected. x.com
Intel's production was reportedly affected by a pause at its Israel fabs, which should benefit competitors Arm and AMD. Both look good on that basis. x.com
