Donald Dean
Economist & Technical Analyst, Fibonacci/Gamma Trading
Opendoor's options gamma map shows a firm floor and a rising ceiling, leaving more room higher by October. The $2.50 floor hasn't moved in four weeks, while the $3.00 ceiling lifts to $3.50 by October 9, with price at $2.80. Put/call is 0.15, close to seven calls per put, and upper targets are $2.95, $4.47, $5.69 and $6.91. x.com
Opendoor's improving unit economics could create operating leverage when housing recovers. It could be one of 2026's most interesting speculative turnarounds. Q2 contribution profit rose 59% sequentially to $51 million, margin reached 4.8%, and profit per home sold rose about $5,000 to $22,000. It still has an adjusted EBITDA loss; mortgage rates, inventory and dilution threaten returns. The coming quarters must prove sustainable profits and shareholder value, not just volume. x.com
Opendoor has crashed enough and should fly once interest rates come down a lot. x.com
Opendoor will go nowhere until interest rates fall and home affordability improves. It has broken down from a Darvas box, while retail traders keep buying it because it is low-priced and was hyped toward $80 a share. x.com
Opendoor could make a nice short-term swing trade on retail hype if it breaks its downtrend, though its long-term fundamentals are unconvincing. Retail speculators may pour back in once it moves, and some may buy it by mistake around the OpenAI IPO, as happened with Virgin Galactic before SpaceX's IPO. Fundamentally, mortgage rates likely need a serious cut for the business to accelerate. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Opendoor looks like a good contrarian idea as it dips into a massive institutional order block after losing support held since February, with the market selling on fears of a rate hike. x.com
Opendoor keeps losing money each quarter while cycling through CEOs. Its steep stock decline looks like capital markets disciplining a struggling business. x.com
Opendoor's weekly rounding bottom looks like the base for a move higher, with $4.10 holding as the floor. Its Q1 report showed narrowing losses and improving margins, June's Russell 3000 inclusion brought fresh index buying, and July is grinding higher while holding support. Targets are $5.60, $6.80 and $7.77. x.com
OpenAI's pre-IPO period will spur a meme-style rally in Opendoor shares. x.com
Opendoor is not worth owning until interest rates start coming down. @Donald04284612 argues the new CEO has done a remarkable job and the stock could be a turnaround and a play on lower rates and a housing recovery. x.com
Opendoor could easily be a $50 stock in five years if management's vision of a one-stop real estate marketplace comes to fruition. The new management is strong, its acquisition count is skyrocketing, and it now offers mortgage services on top of buying and selling homes. x.com