Hated Moats Investor
Contrarian Quality-Stock Research, 25 Years in Markets, GOOGL Since 2011
Markets can front-run a rate turnaround, favoring an upward swing in Opendoor. Its transformation and a turn in rates are both bullish catalysts, while long-duration Treasuries look to be bottoming. Opendoor's stock is holding its support area. x.comÂ
Opendoor could make a nice short-term swing trade on retail hype if it breaks its downtrend, though its long-term fundamentals are unconvincing. Retail speculators may pour back in once it moves, and some may buy it by mistake around the OpenAI IPO, as happened with Virgin Galactic before SpaceX's IPO. Fundamentally, mortgage rates likely need a serious cut for the business to accelerate. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Opendoor, a meme real estate stock, is predictably struggling in a historically slow housing market with mortgage rates near 7.35%. Per @DudeWhoInvests, shares now trade around $2.50, far below the $7 insiders paid. x.comÂ
Opendoor could easily be a $50 stock in five years if management's vision of a one-stop real estate marketplace comes to fruition. The new management is strong, its acquisition count is skyrocketing, and it now offers mortgage services on top of buying and selling homes. x.comÂ
Opendoor's improving unit economics could create operating leverage when housing recovers. It could be one of 2026's most interesting speculative turnarounds. Q2 contribution profit rose 59% sequentially to $51 million, margin reached 4.8%, and profit per home sold rose about $5,000 to $22,000. It still has an adjusted EBITDA loss; mortgage rates, inventory and dilution threaten returns. The coming quarters must prove sustainable profits and shareholder value, not just volume. x.comÂ
Opendoor's valuation at more than twice book value still warrants a short. x.comÂ
Insider purchases are a bullish signal for GameStop, Adobe, Salesforce, Lululemon and now Opendoor. Kasra Nejatian bought $100k of Opendoor on August 14; Ryan Cohen bought $26.4M of GameStop, David Ricks $1.9M of Adobe, David Blair Kirk $999k of Salesforce and Charles Bergh $500k of Lululemon. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Opendoor looks like a good contrarian idea as it dips into a massive institutional order block after losing support held since February, with the market selling on fears of a rate hike. x.comÂ
Opendoor keeps losing money each quarter while cycling through CEOs. Its steep stock decline looks like capital markets disciplining a struggling business. x.comÂ
Opendoor has crashed enough and should fly once interest rates come down a lot. x.comÂ