George Noble
Investment Writer, Former Fund Manager at Fidelity, Former Assistant to Peter Lynch
Opendoor is worth only about $1.50 a share and remains an investment short, because its aggressive software strategy has not worked. CEO Kaz Nejatian has hidden from serious questions while promoting a fallacious narrative to financially illiterate investors, and his hoped-for payday from burning the shorts will never happen. x.comÂ
Opendoor's record net loss undermines its investment case. Trailing net income has fallen to negative $1.521 billion, its worst level so far. x.comÂ
Opendoor's losses would remain substantial even if revenue triples over the next few years. On that scenario, it would still lose $400 million a year against a $2 billion market cap. x.comÂ
Opendoor's improving unit economics could create operating leverage when housing recovers. It could be one of 2026's most interesting speculative turnarounds. Q2 contribution profit rose 59% sequentially to $51 million, margin reached 4.8%, and profit per home sold rose about $5,000 to $22,000. It still has an adjusted EBITDA loss; mortgage rates, inventory and dilution threaten returns. The coming quarters must prove sustainable profits and shareholder value, not just volume. x.comÂ
Opendoor's shrinking revenue and persistent operating losses undermine Keith Rabois's claim that its metrics are solid. Revenue fell from $15.6 billion in 2022 to $4.4 billion in 2025; the S&P Capital IQ screenshot shows broker estimates for negative EBIT through 2028 and $1.96 billion in total debt. x.com x.comÂ
Opendoor keeps losing money each quarter while cycling through CEOs. Its steep stock decline looks like capital markets disciplining a struggling business. x.comÂ
Markets can front-run a rate turnaround, favoring an upward swing in Opendoor. Its transformation and a turn in rates are both bullish catalysts, while long-duration Treasuries look to be bottoming. Opendoor's stock is holding its support area. x.comÂ
Opendoor is a low-quality name because real estate is a personal, decentralized business that isn't meant to be centralized by a non-personal agent managed from San Francisco. Its web traffic is small next to Redfin's amid big competition, and it needs something revolutionary that isn't in sight. Real estate also shouldn't be touched in a weak consumer market. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Opendoor's 10% fee makes its offer uncompetitive for sellers. One homeowner was quoted a $60,500 service fee on a $634,000 sale, roughly double what both agents would cost, which explains why the stock is around $4 despite hopes it becomes a trillion-dollar company. x.comÂ
Opendoor could easily be a $50 stock in five years if management's vision of a one-stop real estate marketplace comes to fruition. The new management is strong, its acquisition count is skyrocketing, and it now offers mortgage services on top of buying and selling homes. x.comÂ
Opendoor's Q2 double miss shows housing transaction velocity remains heavily constrained, disrupting its turnaround and pressuring near-term EBITDA breakeven targets. Revenue rebounded 23% sequentially to $883M but fell 44% year over year, and EPS was -$0.17 against -$0.07 expected. With rates keeping home turnover frozen, its capital-intensive model faces ongoing margin compression until real estate volume stabilizes. x.comÂ