Donald Dean
Economist & Technical Analyst, Fibonacci/Gamma Trading
Tesla's options map points to $377.50 by October 2 and $400 by October 16 if shares hold the $360 floor ahead of delivery numbers. Dealers are cushioning moves for now, with $21.1M at the $377.50 ceiling and $13.5M holding the floor; below $357.50 that positioning turns to fuel, making moves faster either way. x.com
Tesla's options map points to rising ceilings over the coming weeks: $367.50 this week, $370 by October 2 and $400 by October 16. Price is pressed against the $367.50 lid, which has 17,000 calls behind it, while the $360 floor holds 3,700 puts. The expected move of $18.15 by Friday covers the whole box, with $3.23 of room up and $4.32 down. x.com
Tesla's mid-term uptrend is supported by whale accumulation now exceeding 78% and a bullish red ribbon that outweighs short-term candle signals. The last volatility hole at $300 marked the cycle bottom, and previously highlighted momentum bars have flipped into support. Tesla needs to clear the next bar at $420 to unlock further price momentum. x.com
Tesla may be forming one giant bull flag on the weekly chart, with a $525 target. Whales loaded up on December $500 calls this morning. $395 is the most important level to hold in July. x.com
Tesla is not worth touching in the short term because it typically consolidates from May to September and rallies only in October to December. Musk is busy with SpaceX and not promoting Tesla, so the stock is unlikely to move up for now. The plan is to revisit in September; options markets place year-end calls at $900-960, and a choppy mid-year could give way to a year-end run from $450-500 toward $900. x.com x.com
Tesla screens bullish on Aion's per-ticker models, which put the odds of a rise at 74% over 3 days, 81% over 10 and 87% over 20, with crash risk at 0.4%, a 4/5 bull regime and deep liquidity. Dealer positioning adds a layer: with spot near $450, the gamma flip sits around $445, charm decay pulls toward $465, and $460 is the upside magnet, while a $206M gamma wall and 37K contracts at $450 keep price pinned. x.com x.com
Tesla's options flow points to a bullish or neutral outlook, with a $15M put seller positioned out to October. Selling puts signals an expectation that the stock stays bullish or neutral through expiration, while leaving lots of room for error and drawdown. x.com x.com x.com
Tesla's delivery beat is already priced in, making it bearish heading into Wednesday's earnings. Auto margins and FSD/Robotaxi are the key items to watch. x.com
Tesla's AI upside depends on Elon Musk keeping AI inside the company. He could take it out and leave Tesla as a car company, so holders should not get too cocky; at current levels, $500 or $550 would still be hard to turn down. x.com
Keeping Tesla separate from SpaceX looks better for long-term shareholders because standalone businesses can receive more valuation credit. Tesla's stock trades on FSD and Robotaxi uptake and Optimus's intrinsic value, not Model Y sales or EV demand. Musk announced a committee to explore a merger, with a rumored $550-a-share takeout that would bring a quick pop. The chart targets $395, then $405, and $550 after a close above $440. x.com
Tesla's standalone upside is less clear at today's prices because a potential SpaceX exchange hinges on the premium Tesla holders receive and their share of the combined value. If SpaceX keeps executing at this pace, its upside, or that of the combination, looks clearer than Tesla's standalone upside. Execution remains a risk, and the valuation already discounts considerable optimism. x.com
Tesla's stronger gross margin and automotive revenue suggest its car business is healthier than bears expected. Gross margin was 19.6% versus 17.8% expected; automotive revenue beat by over $700M, following 486,532 deliveries versus roughly 462,000 expected. Total revenue missed slightly, likely outside autos. Cybercab, unsupervised FSD and Optimus remain the key call tests. Overweight, $697 target with 80% upside. x.com x.com
