Danny cheng
Technology Investor, Homily Charts & Technical Analysis
Tesla's mid-term uptrend is supported by whale accumulation now exceeding 78% and a bullish red ribbon that outweighs short-term candle signals. The last volatility hole at $300 marked the cycle bottom, and previously highlighted momentum bars have flipped into support. Tesla needs to clear the next bar at $420 to unlock further price momentum. x.comÂ
Tesla's mid-term uptrend is intact as whale accumulation climbs steadily to 37.6% after a bottom set amid retail fear. The trend can expand further only with strong, steady whale buying. An October 5 bullish candle holds with daily closes above $381.59 and fails below $365.91. $380 is temporary resistance, followed by $393, $408 and $422. x.comÂ
Tesla's seasonally strong fourth quarter makes shorting the stock here unattractive. A new bullish trend still needs a clear breakout above its 200-day moving average and price-channel resistance for confirmation. x.comÂ
Tesla screens bullish on Aion's per-ticker models, which put the odds of a rise at 74% over 3 days, 81% over 10 and 87% over 20, with crash risk at 0.4%, a 4/5 bull regime and deep liquidity. Dealer positioning adds a layer: with spot near $450, the gamma flip sits around $445, charm decay pulls toward $465, and $460 is the upside magnet, while a $206M gamma wall and 37K contracts at $450 keep price pinned. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's future tech may already be priced in, and its valuation relative to the rest of the Mag 7 is inane. Tesla has reportedly been losing EV market share as sales decline, and its chart showed a choppy grind to local highs with a good case for a correction to range lows. It is now down 40% from its highs; even below $200 it would trade at a premium to peers, and the buy zone is around $70, though one bullish argument suggests it holds around $130. x.com x.com x.comÂ
A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla now seems very likely, at over $500 per share within the next 12 months. Investors are also bullish on robots and robotaxis, so Tesla's fundamentals and valuation do not seem to matter now and have not for some time. x.comÂ
Tesla may be forming one giant bull flag on the weekly chart, with a $525 target. Whales loaded up on December $500 calls this morning. $395 is the most important level to hold in July. x.comÂ
Tesla's low forward growth and negative free cash flow weaken its long-term appeal. Next-twelve-month revenue growth is 8.9%, while increasing competition threatens its moat. Tesla is noise for now with Elon focused more on SpaceX; its ADR reading of 2.48 is below the 4-plus needed to turn a day trade into a swing, though earnings may change that. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's options map points to $377.50 by October 2 and $400 by October 16 if shares hold the $360 floor ahead of delivery numbers. Dealers are cushioning moves for now, with $21.1M at the $377.50 ceiling and $13.5M holding the floor; below $357.50 that positioning turns to fuel, making moves faster either way. x.comÂ
Tesla's AI upside depends on Elon Musk keeping AI inside the company. He could take it out and leave Tesla as a car company, so holders should not get too cocky; at current levels, $500 or $550 would still be hard to turn down. x.comÂ
Tesla's standalone upside is less clear at today's prices because a potential SpaceX exchange hinges on the premium Tesla holders receive and their share of the combined value. If SpaceX keeps executing at this pace, its upside, or that of the combination, looks clearer than Tesla's standalone upside. Execution remains a risk, and the valuation already discounts considerable optimism. x.comÂ
Tesla's stronger gross margin and automotive revenue suggest its car business is healthier than bears expected. Gross margin was 19.6% versus 17.8% expected; automotive revenue beat by over $700M, following 486,532 deliveries versus roughly 462,000 expected. Total revenue missed slightly, likely outside autos. Cybercab, unsupervised FSD and Optimus remain the key call tests. Overweight, $697 target with 80% upside. x.com x.comÂ
