Yimin X
Founder of YX Insights, Ex-FX/Rates Market Maker
Tesla trades 45% below its long-run exponential trend, in the zone where its 2019 and 2022 consolidations began re-rating. The fit since the 2011 IPO (R-squared 0.654) puts trend value at $680 against $372, and about $1.0K a year out. A return to trend is not certain; it depends on how the market values the coming robotaxi, then humanoid, revenue ramp. Odds of reaching mid-trend by end-2028 exceed 50%, while the very near term looks more neutral. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's mid-term uptrend is supported by whale accumulation now exceeding 78% and a bullish red ribbon that outweighs short-term candle signals. The last volatility hole at $300 marked the cycle bottom, and previously highlighted momentum bars have flipped into support. Tesla needs to clear the next bar at $420 to unlock further price momentum. x.comÂ
Tesla's stronger gross margin and automotive revenue suggest its car business is healthier than bears expected. Gross margin was 19.6% versus 17.8% expected; automotive revenue beat by over $700M, following 486,532 deliveries versus roughly 462,000 expected. Total revenue missed slightly, likely outside autos. Cybercab, unsupervised FSD and Optimus remain the key call tests. Overweight, $697 target with 80% upside. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's low forward growth and negative free cash flow weaken its long-term appeal. Next-twelve-month revenue growth is 8.9%, while increasing competition threatens its moat. Tesla is noise for now with Elon focused more on SpaceX; its ADR reading of 2.48 is below the 4-plus needed to turn a day trade into a swing, though earnings may change that. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's options flow points to a bullish or neutral outlook, with a $15M put seller positioned out to October. Selling puts signals an expectation that the stock stays bullish or neutral through expiration, while leaving lots of room for error and drawdown. x.com x.com x.comÂ
The renewed friendship between Trump and Elon Musk is bullish for Tesla. Trump called Musk "one of the greatest tech founders," and per @Kalshi there is a 60% chance Tesla and SpaceX merge before 2028. x.comÂ
Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tesla is a great buying opportunity because its share price is falling on excessive AI capex while the rest of its margins remain healthy. A decline for that reason is healthy long term and is the best-case setup for buying a stock, especially near its 200-week moving average. x.comÂ
Tesla looks good because its high and growing short interest tends to mark a bottom and signal trend strength. Spikes in short sale volume, and especially extended periods of heavy shorting, are more often than not bullish: the more people short, the higher it goes. x.comÂ
Tesla's valuation is too stretched to justify buying now. Slava cites a 189x forward P/E, falling Q3 deliveries, a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow; other investments look preferable. x.comÂ
SpaceX's near-term earnings growth and potentially underappreciated compute ramp favor it over Tesla if their merger takes longer. SpaceX could exceed $200 by Q4 earnings; if the deal is announced within roughly a month, Tesla is the better trade because SpaceX would have to pay a premium of $420-$500+ a share. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid earnings impact is still many quarters away, though both companies have longer-term upside. x.com x.comÂ