Luca - Cryptic Trades
Markets Researcher at Cryptic Trades
Tesla's high-timeframe consolidation is a good accumulation opportunity, even though the stock will likely keep underperforming over mid timeframes until China's economy recovers. China has long been the main reason for muted short- and mid-term expectations, and a 14% drop has now broken a key high-timeframe support range. Once the broader market rolls over and China recovers, Tesla should be among the names best positioned to catch up with the S&P 500. x.comÂ
Tesla's AI upside depends on Elon Musk keeping AI inside the company. He could take it out and leave Tesla as a car company, so holders should not get too cocky; at current levels, $500 or $550 would still be hard to turn down. x.comÂ
Tesla's seasonally strong fourth quarter makes shorting the stock here unattractive. A new bullish trend still needs a clear breakout above its 200-day moving average and price-channel resistance for confirmation. x.comÂ
Tesla's $1.5T Elon premium looks unjustified while Musk seems to favor SpaceX for the AI compute buildout. Tesla shareholders missed almost the entire AI boom; owning xAI and building that infrastructure might have doubled Tesla's stock. Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.48, down 4% year over year; if Tesla were a non-Musk company, four such quarters at 10x earnings would mean $19.20 a share versus $386. Long-term company prospects remain attractive, but the stock is still not worth buying back. x.com … Show more
Tesla's mid-term uptrend is supported by whale accumulation now exceeding 78% and a bullish red ribbon that outweighs short-term candle signals. The last volatility hole at $300 marked the cycle bottom, and previously highlighted momentum bars have flipped into support. Tesla needs to clear the next bar at $420 to unlock further price momentum. x.comÂ
A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla now seems very likely, at over $500 per share within the next 12 months. Investors are also bullish on robots and robotaxis, so Tesla's fundamentals and valuation do not seem to matter now and have not for some time. x.comÂ
Tesla's stock already prices in much of its long-term AI and autonomous driving potential, while its core auto business still faces declining deliveries and margin pressure. Most analysts rate it a Moderate Buy, but that tension limits the upside. x.comÂ
Tesla's outlook into year end is positive on the potential for a SpaceX buyout and good Optimus news. After a 30% bounce off the bottom, the risk-reward is less compelling. x.comÂ
Tesla's growth across multiple businesses makes the Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF's decline this week another opportunity to buy the dip. Vehicle sales, energy demand, Supercharging, FSD, services, Robotaxi and Semi are gaining momentum; Tesla is growing, not declining. x.comÂ
Tesla's valuation is too stretched to justify buying now. Slava cites a 189x forward P/E, falling Q3 deliveries, a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow; other investments look preferable. x.comÂ
Tesla could reach $800 if it executes on humanoid robots at scale, since it is now an AI software, hardware and robotics company rather than an EV maker. The stock has consolidated in a large ascending triangle since 2021, as the market waits to see whether Tesla can scale humanoids the way its 2020-21 run priced in its EV dominance. If anyone can do it, Elon Musk can. x.comÂ