Tesla's stagnant car business and rising AI and robotics spending are squeezing current earnings before those bets have paid off. Q3 revenue was flat as auto sales slipped and regulatory credits collapsed; operating expenses rose 39%, operating income fell 56%, and EPS dropped from $0.43 to $0.24. The spend-now, profit-later strategy is testing investors' patience. x.com 

Tesla's $1.5T Elon premium looks unjustified while Musk seems to favor SpaceX for the AI compute buildout. Tesla shareholders missed almost the entire AI boom; owning xAI and building that infrastructure might have doubled Tesla's stock. Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.48, down 4% year over year; if Tesla were a non-Musk company, four such quarters at 10x earnings would mean $19.20 a share versus $386. Long-term company prospects remain attractive, but the stock is still not worth buying back. x.com  … Show more

Tesla's AI upside depends on Elon Musk keeping AI inside the company. He could take it out and leave Tesla as a car company, so holders should not get too cocky; at current levels, $500 or $550 would still be hard to turn down. x.com 

Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Tesla's core business is leaking too badly for the market to stomach its undeveloped autonomy promises. Per Gary Black, Q1 deliveries of 358,000 missed expectations of 372,000, a second straight big miss, and energy storage deployments of 8.8 GWh fell short of 14.2 GWh expected, while EVs still made up 72% of 2025 gross profit. Missing by that margin on both suggests serious operational friction that AI projections can't fix overnight. x.com 

Tesla's stronger gross margin and automotive revenue suggest its car business is healthier than bears expected. Gross margin was 19.6% versus 17.8% expected; automotive revenue beat by over $700M, following 486,532 deliveries versus roughly 462,000 expected. Total revenue missed slightly, likely outside autos. Cybercab, unsupervised FSD and Optimus remain the key call tests. Overweight, $697 target with 80% upside. x.com  x.com 

Tesla's delivery beat is already priced in, making it bearish heading into Wednesday's earnings. Auto margins and FSD/Robotaxi are the key items to watch. x.com 

Tesla's valuation is too stretched to justify buying now. Slava cites a 189x forward P/E, falling Q3 deliveries, a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow; other investments look preferable. x.com 

Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus can carry substantial value before major profits because future cash flows, growth and the chance of success matter more than current P/E. In an illustrative model, a one-year delay cuts opportunity value about 11% if payments stay unchanged; faster sustained growth can more than offset it, while reliable deployment can raise the assessed chance of success. These figures are not Tesla forecasts; investment costs and execution risk still matter. x.com 

Tesla's FSD attachment figures leave durable paid demand unclear because retention three to six months after the free trial is unknown. Some analysts estimate effective attachment at 30%-40%, and CFO Taneja's selective answers breed skepticism. Management's aspirational targets alone cannot justify Tesla's 175x 2027 P/E and 73x 2027 EV/EBITDA; competitors' actions, customer feedback and supplier activity also matter. Negative earnings revisions and commoditizing autonomy sustain caution. x.com  … Show more