Cern Basher
Co-Founder, President & CIO of Brilliant Advice
Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus can carry substantial value before major profits because future cash flows, growth and the chance of success matter more than current P/E. In an illustrative model, a one-year delay cuts opportunity value about 11% if payments stay unchanged; faster sustained growth can more than offset it, while reliable deployment can raise the assessed chance of success. These figures are not Tesla forecasts; investment costs and execution risk still matter. x.com
Tesla's Roadster power-density gains could lower mass-market vehicle costs through smaller motors, fewer materials and smaller batteries. Its unveiling display reports about 33% more power than Model S Plaid at half the mass, though battery and drive-unit masses are undisclosed. If adapted at scale, the gains could matter far more to Tesla's profitability than Roadster revenue. Cybercab could benefit from lower-power versions, but Roadster hardware may be too expensive to use directly. x.com
Scaling Tesla's robotaxi fleet to 5,000 could yield a $584 million annual revenue run rate by year-end. The model assumes 24/7 operation, 40 daily rides per vehicle averaging five miles, 70% utilization, and current fares of $3 plus $1 per mile. A 5,000-vehicle fleet by year-end is now the expectation; introducing Cybercabs in other states could keep growth going at its current pace. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX's near-term earnings growth and potentially underappreciated compute ramp favor it over Tesla if their merger takes longer. SpaceX could exceed $200 by Q4 earnings; if the deal is announced within roughly a month, Tesla is the better trade because SpaceX would have to pay a premium of $420-$500+ a share. Tesla's robotaxi and humanoid earnings impact is still many quarters away, though both companies have longer-term upside. x.com x.com
Tesla's 200x earnings multiple asks too much of weak current results and speculative future products. Third-quarter revenue fell 0.4% year over year and EBIT missed estimates by 25%, despite gross-margin and cash-flow beats. Robotaxis, humanoids and other future plans may have appeal, but impressive parts of the business do not make the stock worth its current price. x.com x.com x.com
Tesla's Cybercab may command a premium because it offers a much better ride. It seems to earn over $3 per mile, making Tesla a cash generator for now, though that pricing may not last. Q4 robotaxi miles already appear above Q3 with less than a third of the quarter elapsed; paid miles are tracking for over 3x quarterly growth. Grok roughly estimates Tesla's robotaxi annual revenue run rate at $100-150M versus Waymo's $390-500M; Tesla is on pace to overtake Waymo within months. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
SpaceX's orbital compute is a much bigger opportunity than Tesla's robotaxi, shifting merger gains toward Tesla holders over longer horizons. Robotaxi exceeds Starlink; Optimus needs more time and vast superintelligence. At today's share-price ratio versus no merger, Tesla holders are ~1.6x better off in 2031 and ~5x in 2036, versus ~2x and ~1.3x for SpaceX holders in the model. A roughly 30% Tesla premium balances 2031 gains; a roughly 50% Tesla discount balances 2036 gains. x.com x.com
Tesla's valuation is too stretched to justify buying now. Slava cites a 189x forward P/E, falling Q3 deliveries, a 1.4% operating margin and negative free cash flow; other investments look preferable. x.com
Tesla's low-cost, high-margin Cybercabs make its Robotaxi opportunity bigger than investors appreciate. ARK estimates each costs about $30K to make and generates $93K a year at roughly 68% gross margin; Tesla is not bullish enough in investors' eyes. Texas registrations show 1,080 Teslas, including 573 Cybercabs, versus 1,207 Waymos; these are registrations, not active rides. Cybercabs already outnumber Model Ys less than two months after launch. x.com x.com x.com
Tesla's FSD uptake could add recurring software revenue to its vehicle base, while Robotaxi could earn on each ride. This could be Tesla's most important inflection point, missed amid weak auto profits. North American attach rates rose to 75% from 55% in Q2; subscriptions hit 1.74 million, up 67% year over year, and Cybercab rides began in Austin. Trials may not become lasting paid subscriptions; Robotaxi needs safe operation, steady paying demand and attractive returns at scale. x.com
Tesla's $1.4T valuation prices in absolute perfection and leaves too little headroom to outperform the market over the next few years. Robotaxis, FSD, Optimus, AI and energy storage are exciting, but the share price pays now for what may be achievable in a decade. Tesla makes half Ford's free cash flow, and Uber earns more than double its net income at about a tenth of the value. Car sales peaked in 2022-23 as Chinese automakers ended growth, so it is unclear where the cash comes from. x.com … Show more
Keeping Tesla separate from SpaceX looks better for long-term shareholders because standalone businesses can receive more valuation credit. Tesla's stock trades on FSD and Robotaxi uptake and Optimus's intrinsic value, not Model Y sales or EV demand. Musk announced a committee to explore a merger, with a rumored $550-a-share takeout that would bring a quick pop. The chart targets $395, then $405, and $550 after a close above $440. x.com
