Hamid
Founder & CEO of Savvy Trader/Earnings Hub, Co-Host of BuyHoldRant
Meta's current profits and the long duration of its commitments make near-term bankruptcy fears misplaced. Its existing businesses generate over $100 billion in annual profits, growing roughly 25% a year. Per Bloomberg, it agreed to spend about $825 billion on future leases and contracts; that headline amount spans ten years. x.com
Meta is severely undervalued at 21x forward earnings even though it is growing faster than its megacap peers. At Alphabet's or Amazon's 27x it would be $882, at Microsoft's 25x $817 and at Apple's 36x $1,177. As the only founder-led company of the group, quick to react and now ahead with a leading agentic AI assistant, it deserves a higher valuation than all of them. It added about $50 billion of 80%+ margin revenue in the past year, with about $60 billion more expected next year. x.com x.com
Meta's voluntary move is bullish because it expects to profit from it. Its massive debt capacity remains untouched and is increasing. x.com
Meta's early AI monetization in its core business makes the long-term upside potentially far greater than the short-term pain from its planned $95B capital raise and possible dilution. Its fair value is $1,100, and the shares are worth holding for years despite short-term moves. If Meta monetizes the infrastructure, upside is massive; even if it does not, the assets still have value. x.com
Meta's heavy spending raises questions about how it will earn a return even if its core business improves. Quarterly free cash flow fell from $13.2 billion in March 2026 to $1.7 billion in June and negative $1.2 billion in September. x.com
Meta's AI infrastructure financing raises the risk that a long wait for revenue and profit will keep its shares volatile. It disclosed plans to raise up to $95 billion. @amitisinvesting warns that further dilution could keep the stock stuck even if the buildout eventually pays off. Meta's selloff is still a massive buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.com
Meta's decade of revenue and operating cash flow growth makes it worth at least $2T. LTM revenue rose from $18B in 2015 to $242B, and operating cash flow from $10B to $133B. A $10B legal charge tied to the teenagers case drove the quarterly EPS miss; without it, EPS would have been $7.40. Quarterly free cash flow turned negative for the first time in over 10 years, raising the question of whether the investment will pay off. x.com x.com x.com
Meta's capital spending and competing cash demands leave far less for repurchases than operating cash generation suggests. Its October 9 Base model forecasts $308.61B of operating cash in 2030, $98.67B of free cash flow after capital spending and finance-lease principal, and $63.50B after employee stock-tax withholding and dividends. Investment commitments, debt repayment and liquidity decisions bring modeled repurchases to $35.85B; a rapidly shrinking share count is not automatic. x.com
Financing announcements point to more accelerator demand, supporting semiconductors. About $200bn in announced Meta, Anthropic/Broadcom and SpaceX/Nvidia financing likely drives $400bn in XPU purchases. Data centers burn cash until lit, then cash flow 20-40% annually; AI spend rising from 0.1% to 0.5-1% of current payroll could balance the buildout if agents replace roles. Sustainable token demand is the bet, but smaller local models are the bigger risk, though not an immediate concern. x.com … Show more
Meta's better-than-expected revenue is why it should return to its roughly $800 all-time high. Revenue rose 26.1% year over year to $64.60 billion, above the $63.37 billion analyst estimate; quarterly EPS was $3.83 and net income was $9.86 billion. x.com x.com
Meta's swelling construction in progress has not entered the depreciation base yet. It reached $89.5B in September, up from $26.8B at the end of 2024, largely from data centers, servers and network infrastructure. At its recurring quarterly pace, it is highly likely, by this estimate, to surpass $100B by year-end, nearly quadrupling in two years, a roughly $73B increase. x.com
Meta's financial strength gives it an advantage in securing scarce capital for AI infrastructure, with funding going to those trusted to earn the best returns. Meta says its planned $60B at-the-market equity program is not expected to begin until Q1 2027 and complements $35B in underwritten offerings; its Aa3/AA- ratings allow efficient long-term borrowing. x.com
