Oracle's $664B contracted backlog justifies holding the stock, but position size should reflect funding risk. Capex was 161% of operating cash flow over the last four quarters, and debt plus leases total about $457B; only about 13% of RPO is expected to become revenue in the next year. Delivery timing, grid approvals and possible further equity issuance matter more than a shortage of demand. x.com 

Oracle looks mispriced because $11 of current consolidated earnings power puts it at 11x earnings without a breakup. It trades below its software business's value despite the highest gross retention in software; separating pre-AI OCI, AI operations and AI development makes it an obvious long. Future funding will cost more, but current leverage is no issue and all contracts are well below spot, leaving nowhere near neocloud risk. Fundamentals may not matter during panics. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's growth is being funded at a staggering cost, making it one to stay away from into Thursday's earnings. FY2026 growth was impressive: revenue $67.4B (+17%), cloud infrastructure $18.1B (+77%), operating cash flow $32B (+54%) and a $638B backlog of remaining performance obligations. But $130B of debt, $27B of lease liabilities, huge data-centre commitments and rising capex left free cash flow at -$23.7B and worsening fast. Not a disaster; the test is capex and backlog turning into cash. … Show more

Oracle's AI buildout looks fundable as spending peaks and cash flow turns positive. Spending is forecast to peak in FY27-28, with free cash flow positive in 2H FY28 and above $30bn in FY29, a roughly $54bn swing. New capital raising is capped at $20bn through 2030, half equity and half debt. Revenue is projected to grow from $90bn next year to $225bn+ by FY30. Bullish Oracle. x.com 

Oracle's plan to fund its AI buildout from cash flow makes last week's financing fears look completely overdone. It expects capex to peak in FY27-28, free cash flow to turn positive in H2 FY28 and top $30B in FY29, funding growth from then. Oracle plans at most $20B in further capital raises through FY30, excluding refinancing, after an already completed $20B equity raise. Vendor financing, customer prepayments and customer-supplied hardware should reduce upfront cash needs. x.com  x.com 

Oracle looks set to burn many more billions in cash at least into the first half of fiscal 2028. That is the less reassuring implication of Reuters' headline that Oracle expects cash flow to turn positive in the second half of that fiscal year, even though the market liked the news. x.com 

Oracle's forecast of a FY29 capex step-down and a limit on additional capital raises supports a return to all-time highs soon. Oracle says it will limit those raises to $20 billion through FY30 and reaffirmed its FY27 outlook of over $90 billion in revenue and $8.10 non-GAAP EPS. The stock remains very overcrowded. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's projected free-cash-flow turnaround challenges the market's fear that data-center spending will bring insolvency or years of cash burn for little return. Oracle expects positive FCF in the second half of FY28, at least $30B in FY29 and self-funded growth by FY29 as capex declines. Already undervalued, Oracle is seeing a lift; the clearer profitability path could lift other data-center operators too. x.com 

Oracle's infrastructure backlog carries a financing risk: a reported ~$300B OpenAI deal accounts for much of its $664B backlog, raising a real question about OpenAI's ability to pay. The reported ~$50B versus ~$70B OpenAI run-rate gap is mostly a difference in how cloud-partner sales are counted, not by itself evidence that physical AI demand has fallen. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's 56% fall prices in a debt spiral that its filings do not support. At $143 it trades under 18 times forward earnings on a fiscal 2027 guide of $90 billion revenue, 33% growth, and $8.05 EPS, while its contracted backlog hit $638 billion, up 363%. No new debt is planned in calendar 2026, and $75 billion of AI contracts are prepaid or bring-your-own-GPU. Legacy operating income of $28.9 billion roughly covers the price; if funding windows shut, leverage cuts again. x.com