Oracle's capex will not step down soon enough to avert bankruptcy. TradFi reports that Oracle expects capex to step down in FY29; Oracle will be bankrupt by then. x.com 

Semiconductors face a negative signal from the first call of peak AI capex. Per Wallstengine, Oracle expects its AI data-center spending to peak in FY27-FY28 and decline in FY29. Oracle's FY27-FY28 runs from June 2026 through May 2028. x.com 

Oracle's forecast turn to positive free cash flow strengthens its funding outlook. Oracle expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028 and reach at least $30 billion in fiscal 2029 once capex peaks; it caps new capital raises through fiscal 2030 at $20 billion. The multi-model signal turned Long on Tuesday, with three of four models agreeing. x.com 

Oracle's growth is being funded at a staggering cost, making it one to stay away from into Thursday's earnings. FY2026 growth was impressive: revenue $67.4B (+17%), cloud infrastructure $18.1B (+77%), operating cash flow $32B (+54%) and a $638B backlog of remaining performance obligations. But $130B of debt, $27B of lease liabilities, huge data-centre commitments and rising capex left free cash flow at -$23.7B and worsening fast. Not a disaster; the test is capex and backlog turning into cash. … Show more

Oracle's big rally on its RPO jump was fake, and the only data since show OpenAI writing checks its business can't cash. The pop came on an earnings miss and took 57 days to undo; the stock then fell another 46% and has dropped after every report since. Within two weeks, a force majeure dismissed as a nothing burger gave way to word that its cash-incinerating key customer has $20B less revenue than due diligence assumed. Shorting in size is still hard. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's free-cash-flow forecast suggests today's capital intensity may have an expiration date. Oracle now expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of FY28 and reach at least $30 billion in FY29, a possible easing of the financing risk in its AI-compute buildout. x.com  x.com 

Oracle would be among the most exposed companies if AI infrastructure spending proves excessive, because it is committing enormous capital before the returns arrive. It burned more cash than any other S&P 500 company, with trailing free cash flow of -$28.7B and a -40% margin, as it plans $90-$95B of capex this year, partly debt-financed. The business is growing fast: quarterly revenue rose 30% to $19.3B and backlog reached $664B, up $209B in a year. x.com 

Oracle's year-long evaluation of Cerebras' costs, performance, customer uses and equipment life strengthens the case for its inference technology. Oracle chose to bring the equipment into its data centers; that real-world buyer decision conflicts with the short seller report's criticism. x.com 

Oracle's projected free-cash-flow turnaround challenges the market's fear that data-center spending will bring insolvency or years of cash burn for little return. Oracle expects positive FCF in the second half of FY28, at least $30B in FY29 and self-funded growth by FY29 as capex declines. Already undervalued, Oracle is seeing a lift; the clearer profitability path could lift other data-center operators too. x.com 

Oracle looks all-in, borrowing $124 billion for AI infrastructure while its supply chain and energy costs are tied to a war zone. Its backlog has to turn into actual cash before interest payments eat the company alive. The market already prices Oracle with more risk than in 2008. A post the author replies to reports Oracle cut 20,000-30,000 jobs, about 18% of its workforce, in one morning, which TD Cowen estimates saves $8-10 billion a year in cash flow. x.com