3X Long Labubu
Long-Term Investor, Hobby Trader
Semiconductors could bounce before year-end as investors perceive valuations as cheap, Anthropic's IPO revives animal spirits and post-midterm clarity lets markets price Iran and other uncertainties. The longer-run view remains bearish: capex guidance in this or the next earnings cycle could make peak capex growth a trading theme in late January and February 2027. Some scale-across names may still outperform; SOXX is a short only intraday. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
War escalation and the midterms will keep investors from increasing gross or net semiconductor exposure. SOXX will take out its July lows before any sustained rally; against a suggested 5% dip and 50% rebound, the path is '5% down then 100% down.' x.com x.comÂ
SOXX's extreme selling sets up a semiconductor relief bounce next week before another leg lower. Per Heis, SOXX had its third-highest red-volume week and tied its longest nine-day losing streak; the four other top red-volume weeks averaged an 8.4% gain the following week. This is not a heavy bet: preserve capital, keep short-term setups small and accumulate core dips for the long term. x.comÂ
Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.comÂ
AI-related numbers will prove effectively made up, setting up a 'biblical' rotation out of semiconductor stocks (SOXX) by the time it is done. Confidence that the capex bubble has burst is high. x.comÂ
Semiconductors look set to outperform software. Hedge funds are simultaneously the most overweight semis and most underweight software in a decade, and last year's compression in software valuations made that signal impossible to ignore. Within chips, photonics, memory and CPUs are the favored areas. x.comÂ
Anticipation of NVIDIA earnings in two weeks should give semiconductor stocks brief relief. A bounce is expected through early next week, though more downside is still expected overall; the position is in SOXL November 27 $90 long calls. x.comÂ
Semiconductor earnings will be good, supporting a likely run into Q3 results. The group looks oversold, and the Anthropic/CoreWeave news is noise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Broadcom's reported $63 billion deal to finance AI chips for Anthropic is a long-term bullish catalyst for AI and semiconductor stocks. Kalshi Finance reports the arrangement; the bullish view covers Broadcom, TSMC, Nvidia, Nebius and the SMH and SOXX semiconductor ETFs. x.comÂ
Tech and semiconductor bounces are mainly driven by less urgent hedge-fund selling rather than fresh buying. Per Goldman Sachs, tech is still being sold amid very low activity; there is no sign risk has been added yet. The unwind may be nearing its end, especially as hyperscalers stick to capex plans and Q3 semiconductor earnings look likely to be positive. Less crowded positioning and more normal multiples leave a healthier base for a longer-term rebuild. x.comÂ
