The Wheelie Investor
Options Trader, Agentic Trading, Builder of AgenticTG
US tech and semiconductor stocks are at the start of the biggest bull run of our lives, because AI's utility is insane and just getting started; now is the time to load up for the next 5+ years. AI will become a bubble, but generational wealth will be made in this next industrial revolution. x.com x.comÂ
Tech stocks could rally 40% over the next nine months, replaying the 2025 playbook. A sell-off back to 2024 highs on Trump's remarks would likely end with the biggest TACO reversal yet by Friday, April 10, marking the bottom with a record up day. Anthropic's daily product releases and a 10x revenue jump by next year would then fuel the rally. x.comÂ
AI spending makes Defiance AI Infrastructure the simplest way to own chips, cooling and power. Roundhill Memory alone holds makers for a shortage expected into 2028. VanEck Semiconductor is the broadest chip fund and a core long-term AI holding. Global X Robotics & AI owns factory and hospital automation sellers now. ARK Autonomous Tech covers autonomy but is the most aggressive, volatile pick. Roundhill Neocloud is the list's only rental fund and most direct way to own AI compute demand. x.com … Show more
Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Semiconductor stocks' easy-money phase is over as the sector shifts from hype to show-me-the-money. The SOX index is down over 15% from its June peak, chip funds saw $11B of outflows in one week, the largest this century, short interest is at a three-year high and earnings growth is projected to slow by 2027. Memory and logic chips remain commodity-like. This is cyclical cooling, not a death knell; the AI build-out continues, but expect more turbulence and favor companies with defensive moats. … Show more
Semiconductors are the cheapest layer of the AI trade yet have the fastest earnings growth, so the AI bubble debate misses the point. Semis trade at 17.8x while software, up only 2%, trades at 25x. The market isn't pricing AI; it's pricing who keeps the margin. x.comÂ
Technology stocks are backed by AI fundamentals strong enough that being bearish is the wrong side. Hedge funds are buying US tech at the fastest rate since mid-2025, and Intel's CEO says memory prices have risen over 5x with the shortage worsening in 2027. AI token usage is up about 2,400% a year, with Goldman Sachs expecting 24x more by 2030. Nebius is raising GPU prices about 20%, Broadcom expects AI revenue to double in FY27 and FY28, and GPU depreciation is far milder than bears forecast. … Show more
AI semiconductor stocks are falling because valuations priced in too much growth beyond 2026-27, not because fundamentals are worsening. With the sector ETF up more than 100% year to date at one point, Q2 earnings couldn't meet those expectations, and a crowded trade is deleveraging as everyone races for the same exit. Fundamentals are likely improving, so as positioning and valuation reset the trade can continue, but selectively. x.comÂ
US stocks broadly are undervalued because most of AI's economic value flows to the businesses consuming tokens, not the token producers. AI agents do tasks far more cheaply than human labor, so value creation exceeds value capture by 50:1 or more, lifting aggregate earnings. S&P 500 earnings growth should accelerate beyond historical norms, in step with model labs' revenue. 2026 EPS revisions already outpace the norm, inflecting as Claude Code spread in January, even with CAPE at 42x. x.com … Show more
These twelve stocks could dominate the next era by meeting infrastructure and consumer demand. TSMC makes AI chips; Palo Alto Networks secures cloud; GE Aerospace earns engine-service revenue; IREN builds AI cloud; Broadcom supplies chips and networking; Intuitive Surgical sells surgical robots. Strategy offers bitcoin exposure; e.l.f. Beauty serves Gen Z; Robinhood expands finance; The Trade Desk serves advertisers; Walmart adds ads and memberships; Vistra powers AI data centers. x.com x.com … Show more
Tech stocks will get wrecked when AI merely opens new avenues for productivity without dramatic change, since AI bulls are selling a pie-in-the-sky superintelligence story. That modest outcome, raised by @UrInsideMan, is what will actually happen. x.comÂ
Semiconductors are more likely to go up than down from here at current valuations, since 2028 is probably a 20-30% capex growth year. AI capabilities and model revenue are ramping at an unprecedented pace and chip spending drives earnings growth for the whole market, while multiples stay reasonable on cyclical fears. The risk: model revenue added about $170 billion in 2026 against $780 billion of capex, and if capex flattens after an expected $1.1 trillion in 2027, multiples may stay low. x.comÂ
