Debt-funded AI building is making tech stocks vulnerable to a 25-30% pullback as rates and energy prices rise. AI company borrowing reached $466B this year versus $101B a year earlier; weekly default-insurance trading on seven AI names rose from under $2B in July to over $9B in September. Keep cash for lower prices, though 30% earnings growth and a 19x market multiple argue this is not an AI bubble. x.com 

US technology shares are way overvalued for realistic growth expectations. Their decline is a repricing toward more reasonable expectations, not the Black Monday-style crash some over-leveraged tech holders predict. x.com  x.com 

US tech and semiconductor stocks are at the start of the biggest bull run of our lives, because AI's utility is insane and just getting started; now is the time to load up for the next 5+ years. AI will become a bubble, but generational wealth will be made in this next industrial revolution. x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's AI capex payback is being repriced, making its post-earnings decline more than a one-day mood swing. Guidance and cloud and AI margin commentary are the near-term tests. If growth continues but the multiple compresses, the risk is duration in mega-cap AI, not a collapse in technology growth. x.com 

Inflation and interest-rate fears, not an AI slowdown, are driving the selloff in AI stocks. The market and Fed are reacting wrongly to AI's rapid growth and value creation. Apart from year-end tax-loss harvesting, there is no reason to sell; this should pass and holders should come out stronger than ever. x.com  x.com 

US stocks' fear over AI labs pacing themselves is nonsense, because demand and supply constraints for the AI buildout have not changed. Every layer of the buildout was signaling the same thing before the weekend's essay. Some caution is warranted, but the doomsday reaction was already fading as markets recovered from a brutal premarket and open. x.com  x.com 

Software stocks may benefit from the AI displacement trade's complete reversal through 2026: instead of AI supposedly displacing traditional software companies, software companies could potentially displace the AI trade itself. x.com 

Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.com 

AI stocks look undervalued relative to the broader market, since the S&P 500 is more stretched against its own history than the Nasdaq 100, despite the Nasdaq's higher absolute P/E. Per @MikeZaccardi, the Nasdaq 100 P/E holds at 24x. Those running capital markets dislike AI capex and AI stocks, but if the Mag 7 CEOs, excluding Apple, are right about AI, they will love the returns a few years out, just late. Both indexes could still be overvalued. x.com 

US stocks should be getting hit hard, because the AI bubble they depend on has no good outcome and invites government intervention. Those who know the most about frontier AI are terrified of it. If AI works as intended, it is a societal disaster that replaces tens of millions of workers; if it is only a moderate productivity improver, the investment is hard to justify economically. You cannot bet on the end of the world, but you can bet on government slamming on the brakes. x.com  x.com  x.com