Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

Semiconductors look relatively cheap against the S&P 500, while their earnings are growing much faster, barring an EPS reset. The selloff looks overdone, though that does not mean it reverses tomorrow. x.com 

Semiconductors are now cheaper than the broader market on forward earnings, provided earnings cuts do not undermine that discount. The sector's forward P/E is about 17 versus roughly 18.6 for the S&P 500. x.com 

Semiconductor stocks' easy-money phase is over as the sector shifts from hype to show-me-the-money. The SOX index is down over 15% from its June peak, chip funds saw $11B of outflows in one week, the largest this century, short interest is at a three-year high and earnings growth is projected to slow by 2027. Memory and logic chips remain commodity-like. This is cyclical cooling, not a death knell; the AI build-out continues, but expect more turbulence and favor companies with defensive moats. … Show more

Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.com 

Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.com 

Semiconductors still look likely to lag on a risk-adjusted basis, even if Treasury intervention such as yield-curve control changes the broader picture. They should have been rallying hard this week and are not acting right for bulls, suggesting something is brewing, probably a capex disappointment. Hyperscalers may be closer to another leg up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor stocks have not priced in a record wave of AI chip demand. Taiwan chip exports jumped over 20% in a single month and demand is 30% above three months earlier, the biggest in history, while Korea is also seeing record semiconductor demand, up 30% on mid-2026. A step change in demand comes while semis are still cheaper than before the AI boom. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com