Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor earnings have outpaced prices, making the selloff look more like forced positioning than a broken growth case. Since January 2025, the SOX rose about 114% while reconstructed forward earnings rose about 198%; the estimate is approximate. Hedge funds sold global tech at a greater-than-three-standard-deviation pace in October 5-16, a pattern seen near earlier lows, though another sharp flush could come before a reversal. x.com 

Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors look relatively cheap against the S&P 500, while their earnings are growing much faster, barring an EPS reset. The selloff looks overdone, though that does not mean it reverses tomorrow. x.com 

Semiconductors look to be topping and should resolve lower into September, as the market prices in slowing capex in 2027. Strong earnings beats look in the rearview mirror; if Q2 was near peak, big beats are expected, and record backlogs are typical at peak demand and can be cut fast once spending slows. The semiconductor ETF has completed its upside correction and is losing steam, with new lows likely by September, which would weigh on a Nasdaq expected to slip toward its 200-day average. x.com  … Show more

Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.com 

Semiconductors are now cheaper than the broader market on forward earnings, provided earnings cuts do not undermine that discount. The sector's forward P/E is about 17 versus roughly 18.6 for the S&P 500. x.com 

Semiconductors risk a telecom-style bust if AI capex merely flatlines rather than falls. Telecom investment did not decline after 2001; it stopped growing for 25 years, and investors took a bath as stocks priced for growth stalled and margins compressed. Today's $1 trillion-plus of annual investment rests largely on startups' projections of about 10x growth, and xAI and Meta already found less demand than expected. GPUs must run while they hold value, so no analogy is perfect. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductors are the cheapest layer of the AI trade yet have the fastest earnings growth, so the AI bubble debate misses the point. Semis trade at 17.8x while software, up only 2%, trades at 25x. The market isn't pricing AI; it's pricing who keeps the margin. x.com