AI stocks look undervalued relative to the broader market, since the S&P 500 is more stretched against its own history than the Nasdaq 100, despite the Nasdaq's higher absolute P/E. Per @MikeZaccardi, the Nasdaq 100 P/E holds at 24x. Those running capital markets dislike AI capex and AI stocks, but if the Mag 7 CEOs, excluding Apple, are right about AI, they will love the returns a few years out, just late. Both indexes could still be overvalued. x.com 

US large-cap equities stay a buy because an uninterrupted AI narrative is strong enough to overcome adverse macro developments. Core inflation in the high 2s or low 3s is not a big risk; stocks, the Fed and a sideways 10-year yield show little concern. As long as AI capex is not slowing, macro remains a dominated risk. A pullback is overdue, but its likelier catalyst is AI-related, such as a megacap like Meta cutting capex or open models reviving ROI questions, which would change the view. x.com  … Show more

Debt-funded AI building is making tech stocks vulnerable to a 25-30% pullback as rates and energy prices rise. AI company borrowing reached $466B this year versus $101B a year earlier; weekly default-insurance trading on seven AI names rose from under $2B in July to over $9B in September. Keep cash for lower prices, though 30% earnings growth and a 19x market multiple argue this is not an AI bubble. x.com 

Financing announcements point to more accelerator demand, supporting semiconductors. About $200bn in announced Meta, Anthropic/Broadcom and SpaceX/Nvidia financing likely drives $400bn in XPU purchases. Data centers burn cash until lit, then cash flow 20-40% annually; AI spend rising from 0.1% to 0.5-1% of current payroll could balance the buildout if agents replace roles. Sustainable token demand is the bet, but smaller local models are the bigger risk, though not an immediate concern. x.com  … Show more

US large-cap stocks keep rising because AI is extremely powerful, and earnings are growing faster than prices, compressing valuations despite record value creation. Per FactSet's John Butters, blended S&P 500 Q2 earnings grew about 29% year over year even excluding Alphabet and Amazon, while the index rose only about 21% over the same period. x.com 

S&P 500 earnings look flattered by AI spending: hundreds of billions in AI capex become immediate revenue for sellers of chips, servers and cloud capacity, while buyers amortize the cost over years. Revenue explodes now and the pain shows up later, so Wall Street raises estimates and stocks get even more expensive. That looks worryingly like a dot-com 2.0, and the risk is what happens when AI spending slows or stops. x.com 

US tech and semiconductor stocks are at the start of the biggest bull run of our lives, because AI's utility is insane and just getting started; now is the time to load up for the next 5+ years. AI will become a bubble, but generational wealth will be made in this next industrial revolution. x.com  x.com 

S&P 500 stocks look cheap relative to expected earnings as forecasts grow faster than share prices. Forward P/E has fallen below 19, its lowest since 2023 and slightly below its 10-year average, despite the index nearing all-time highs. Goldman Sachs' earnings beat, with net income up 29% year over year, suggests earnings support extends beyond AI. x.com 

US technology shares are way overvalued for realistic growth expectations. Their decline is a repricing toward more reasonable expectations, not the Black Monday-style crash some over-leveraged tech holders predict. x.com  x.com 

US large-cap stocks are set for a catch-up trade after the biggest, best companies fell 15% or more on a manufactured conflict that is now irrelevant, even as AI usage exploded and their numbers kept rising. The Nasdaq 100 is up only 4% this year and the S&P 500 2%, less than Claude's inflection since December alone is worth. x.com  x.com