Oracle looks set to burn many more billions in cash at least into the first half of fiscal 2028. That is the less reassuring implication of Reuters' headline that Oracle expects cash flow to turn positive in the second half of that fiscal year, even though the market liked the news. x.com 

Semiconductors face a negative signal from the first call of peak AI capex. Per Wallstengine, Oracle expects its AI data-center spending to peak in FY27-FY28 and decline in FY29. Oracle's FY27-FY28 runs from June 2026 through May 2028. x.com 

Oracle's forecast of a FY29 capex step-down and a limit on additional capital raises supports a return to all-time highs soon. Oracle says it will limit those raises to $20 billion through FY30 and reaffirmed its FY27 outlook of over $90 billion in revenue and $8.10 non-GAAP EPS. The stock remains very overcrowded. x.com  x.com 

The debt behind Oracle's capex is drawing credit-market concern. Its five-year credit-default swap spread has risen past 300 basis points. x.com 

Oracle's growth is being funded at a staggering cost, making it one to stay away from into Thursday's earnings. FY2026 growth was impressive: revenue $67.4B (+17%), cloud infrastructure $18.1B (+77%), operating cash flow $32B (+54%) and a $638B backlog of remaining performance obligations. But $130B of debt, $27B of lease liabilities, huge data-centre commitments and rising capex left free cash flow at -$23.7B and worsening fast. Not a disaster; the test is capex and backlog turning into cash. … Show more

Oracle's projected capex peak gives its heavy investment a timetable for producing cash. Investor day put peak capital spending in FY2027-FY2028 and positive free cash flow in the second half of FY2028. After spending what it needed, Oracle can build cash as spending eases. x.com  x.com 

AI data-center investment needs outside AI spending to rise 33-fold by 2030 to break even. Hyperscalers hold $4.5 trillion in debt and future liabilities, but corporate and SaaS token spending outside circular deals is only $60 billion annualized against a $2 trillion break-even ARR. SK hynix says memory shortages may last until 2031, raising capex and CoreWeave default risk; Mitsubishi warns turbines are booked through 2031 and cost 400% more, delaying CoreWeave and Oracle data centers. x.com  … Show more

Oracle is heading for a crash toward a $70 target as it rejects its monthly 50-period moving average from below. The biggest crashes come when a stock breaks its weekly 200-period and monthly 50-period averages, retests them from below and fails. Credit backs this up: Oracle leaned on cheap debt until its CDS hit levels unseen since 2009 and it was cut to one notch above junk, then announced about $20 billion of equity issuance anyway with shares 50% off their highs. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's plan to fund its AI buildout from cash flow makes last week's financing fears look completely overdone. It expects capex to peak in FY27-28, free cash flow to turn positive in H2 FY28 and top $30B in FY29, funding growth from then. Oracle plans at most $20B in further capital raises through FY30, excluding refinancing, after an already completed $20B equity raise. Vendor financing, customer prepayments and customer-supplied hardware should reduce upfront cash needs. x.com  x.com 

Oracle is letting a capital-intensive strategy cannibalize its cash flow and margins much as WorldCom did, and investment-grade companies can still collapse fast. In 2002, WorldCom went from investment grade to bankrupt overnight. Oracle is not committing fraud, but it is doing this in the open and people are not analyzing it correctly. Per a quoted post, Oracle's long-term bonds yield a record 8.3% and its five-year CDS has surged above 220 basis points. x.com  x.com