Dray
Finance Student, Stock Investor, Technology & Business
Oracle can become a $1 trillion company as its $664 billion backlog, against a $430.91 billion market cap, keeps scaling, with about half expected to convert to revenue within three years. Agentic inference should keep benefiting its cloud infrastructure, and OpenAI's approaching IPO would be a massive catalyst given Oracle's large stake in OpenAI's buildout. At 16.7 times forward earnings it is a favorite risk-reward bet, though the balance sheet and heavy reliance on OpenAI are risks. x.com x.comÂ
Oracle's forecast turn to positive free cash flow strengthens its funding outlook. Oracle expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028 and reach at least $30 billion in fiscal 2029 once capex peaks; it caps new capital raises through fiscal 2030 at $20 billion. The multi-model signal turned Long on Tuesday, with three of four models agreeing. x.comÂ
Oracle's AI buildout looks fundable as spending peaks and cash flow turns positive. Spending is forecast to peak in FY27-28, with free cash flow positive in 2H FY28 and above $30bn in FY29, a roughly $54bn swing. New capital raising is capped at $20bn through 2030, half equity and half debt. Revenue is projected to grow from $90bn next year to $225bn+ by FY30. Bullish Oracle. x.comÂ
Oracle looks set to burn many more billions in cash at least into the first half of fiscal 2028. That is the less reassuring implication of Reuters' headline that Oracle expects cash flow to turn positive in the second half of that fiscal year, even though the market liked the news. x.comÂ
Oracle's plan to fund its AI buildout from cash flow makes last week's financing fears look completely overdone. It expects capex to peak in FY27-28, free cash flow to turn positive in H2 FY28 and top $30B in FY29, funding growth from then. Oracle plans at most $20B in further capital raises through FY30, excluding refinancing, after an already completed $20B equity raise. Vendor financing, customer prepayments and customer-supplied hardware should reduce upfront cash needs. x.com x.comÂ
Oracle's free-cash-flow forecast suggests today's capital intensity may have an expiration date. Oracle now expects free cash flow to turn positive in the second half of FY28 and reach at least $30 billion in FY29, a possible easing of the financing risk in its AI-compute buildout. x.com x.comÂ
Oracle's capex will not step down soon enough to avert bankruptcy. TradFi reports that Oracle expects capex to step down in FY29; Oracle will be bankrupt by then. x.comÂ
Oracle's projected free-cash-flow turnaround challenges the market's fear that data-center spending will bring insolvency or years of cash burn for little return. Oracle expects positive FCF in the second half of FY28, at least $30B in FY29 and self-funded growth by FY29 as capex declines. Already undervalued, Oracle is seeing a lift; the clearer profitability path could lift other data-center operators too. x.comÂ
Oracle's forecast of a FY29 capex step-down and a limit on additional capital raises supports a return to all-time highs soon. Oracle says it will limit those raises to $20 billion through FY30 and reaffirmed its FY27 outlook of over $90 billion in revenue and $8.10 non-GAAP EPS. The stock remains very overcrowded. x.com x.comÂ
Oracle's growth is being funded at a staggering cost, making it one to stay away from into Thursday's earnings. FY2026 growth was impressive: revenue $67.4B (+17%), cloud infrastructure $18.1B (+77%), operating cash flow $32B (+54%) and a $638B backlog of remaining performance obligations. But $130B of debt, $27B of lease liabilities, huge data-centre commitments and rising capex left free cash flow at -$23.7B and worsening fast. Not a disaster; the test is capex and backlog turning into cash. … Show more
Semiconductors face a negative signal from the first call of peak AI capex. Per Wallstengine, Oracle expects its AI data-center spending to peak in FY27-FY28 and decline in FY29. Oracle's FY27-FY28 runs from June 2026 through May 2028. x.comÂ