Oracle looks set to burn many more billions in cash at least into the first half of fiscal 2028. That is the less reassuring implication of Reuters' headline that Oracle expects cash flow to turn positive in the second half of that fiscal year, even though the market liked the news. x.com 

Oracle's capex will not step down soon enough to avert bankruptcy. TradFi reports that Oracle expects capex to step down in FY29; Oracle will be bankrupt by then. x.com 

Oracle's projected free-cash-flow turnaround challenges the market's fear that data-center spending will bring insolvency or years of cash burn for little return. Oracle expects positive FCF in the second half of FY28, at least $30B in FY29 and self-funded growth by FY29 as capex declines. Already undervalued, Oracle is seeing a lift; the clearer profitability path could lift other data-center operators too. x.com 

Oracle's year-long evaluation of Cerebras' costs, performance, customer uses and equipment life strengthens the case for its inference technology. Oracle chose to bring the equipment into its data centers; that real-world buyer decision conflicts with the short seller report's criticism. x.com 

The debt behind Oracle's capex is drawing credit-market concern. Its five-year credit-default swap spread has risen past 300 basis points. x.com 

Oracle's plan to fund its AI buildout from cash flow makes last week's financing fears look completely overdone. It expects capex to peak in FY27-28, free cash flow to turn positive in H2 FY28 and top $30B in FY29, funding growth from then. Oracle plans at most $20B in further capital raises through FY30, excluding refinancing, after an already completed $20B equity raise. Vendor financing, customer prepayments and customer-supplied hardware should reduce upfront cash needs. x.com  x.com 

Oracle's big rally on its RPO jump was fake, and the only data since show OpenAI writing checks its business can't cash. The pop came on an earnings miss and took 57 days to undo; the stock then fell another 46% and has dropped after every report since. Within two weeks, a force majeure dismissed as a nothing burger gave way to word that its cash-incinerating key customer has $20B less revenue than due diligence assumed. Shorting in size is still hard. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's problem is structural, not just debt: it is building hyperscaler infrastructure without hyperscaler economics. It lacks a full stack and a pricing moat, carries $130B of debt and has -$24B of free cash flow, and a subcontractor does not earn AWS-like margins. That is behind its worst week since the 2001 dot-com bust, per a report by Jordan Novet. x.com 

Oracle looks mispriced because $11 of current consolidated earnings power puts it at 11x earnings without a breakup. It trades below its software business's value despite the highest gross retention in software; separating pre-AI OCI, AI operations and AI development makes it an obvious long. Future funding will cost more, but current leverage is no issue and all contracts are well below spot, leaving nowhere near neocloud risk. Fundamentals may not matter during panics. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oracle's growth is being funded at a staggering cost, making it one to stay away from into Thursday's earnings. FY2026 growth was impressive: revenue $67.4B (+17%), cloud infrastructure $18.1B (+77%), operating cash flow $32B (+54%) and a $638B backlog of remaining performance obligations. But $130B of debt, $27B of lease liabilities, huge data-centre commitments and rising capex left free cash flow at -$23.7B and worsening fast. Not a disaster; the test is capex and backlog turning into cash. … Show more