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George Noble

Investment Writer, Former Fund Manager at Fidelity, Former Assistant to Peter Lynch

6 Apr, 17:03Latest

Blue Owl's problem is its product, not its narrative: it sold retail investors illiquid private credit with no exit. Weeks after co-CEO Marc Lipschultz called its tech portfolio pristine with no red or yellow flags, investors sought to withdraw 41% of that fund and could get only 5%. His pay is tied to management fee revenue, not performance or credit losses, so executives profit from gathering capital even as loans sour or funds gate. Investors should run from anything associated with Blue Owl. x.com x.com

OWL

Investor_NICK

Biotech & Technology Investor

2 Apr

OWL

Blue Owl is past the point of being cooked as redemption requests at its private credit funds far exceed expectations. Per @negligible_cap, Blue Owl Technology Income Corp received 40.7% redemption requests and Blue Owl Credit Income Corp 21.9% in Q1, with redemptions kept to 5%. The stock fell 9.5%. x.com

Francis Hunt

Trading Education, Hunt Volatility Funnel & Capital Preservation

14 Mar

OWL

Blue Owl sits at the center of a private credit scandal that has yet to peak, and its stock has more downside after reaching a head-and-shoulders target. Per @junkbondinvest, Trump signed an order letting 401(k)s invest in private markets just as semi-liquid funds gate redemptions and BDCs cut dividends, making retail retirement money the exit liquidity. Ordinary savers risk becoming the bagholders. x.com

Brad Thomas

Founder & Lead Analyst of Wide Moat Research

20h ago

OWL

Blue Owl Capital's $330 billion in assets under management and Q3 earnings beat reinforce the bullish thesis behind a Strong Buy rating targeting 25%+ annualized returns. Distributable EPS beat estimates and the $0.23 quarterly dividend was maintained despite a 96% payout ratio. The risks have not disappeared; this is not a SWAN stock. x.com

Nicholas Mugalli

Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy

29 Apr

OWL

Blue Owl Capital's pristine financial model rests on assumptions that just broke. Its $2.92 billion revenue, 45% net margins and rising distributable earnings require every loan to keep performing. Yet Blue Owl suspended its Oracle data center project, gated investor redemptions because assets cannot be sold fast enough, and Jamie Dimon warned private credit players will blow up. With Brent at $119, no rate cuts through 2027 and memory shortages delaying builds, restructuring is the next crack. … Show more

GrowthTurtle

Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma

8 Apr

OWL

Blue Owl is a falling knife because private credit is the new junk paper and the credit event has not even hit yet. Replying to @infraa_, who floated nibbling on private-credit longs like Blue Owl, buying here is catching a falling knife blindfolded. x.com

Stock/Options Trader, Volume at Support/Resistance, Publisher of Volume Stocks Newsletter

30 May

OWL

Blue Owl's chart is a beauty: solid volume at support, a volume gap above, a tight consolidating wedge, and insiders buying at $15. Averaging in now is reasonable. x.com

Say No To Trading

Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management

8 Oct

APO

ARES

KKR

The highest-quality private equity and private credit managers, Apollo, Ares, Blackstone and KKR, are back on sale, mainly because of interest rates. They are not as cheap as during March's SaaS debt scare, and weaker names such as Blue Owl are still to be avoided. x.com x.com

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