Nvidia looks due for a catch-up trade, with the stock near three-year lows relative to AMD. A mid-to-high-teens P/E also seems hard to ignore. x.com
Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com
Nvidia is unbelievably undervalued, trading at a 13.91 forward P/E, below JPMorgan's 14.16, and investors should be ready for when the current thinking on the stock turns. x.com
Nvidia's trough P/E is a trap rather than a bargain. Responding to @WaterworldCapi1 noting Nvidia at a 10-year-low P/E, a cheap multiple on a cyclical name is exactly when the stock gets hammered. x.com
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.com
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
Falling AI token and compute prices are a perfect storm for Nvidia. Token costs are down about 30% since the start of June, falling on 15 of the past 18 days, while compute rental prices are 16% off their recent highs. The bull argument that this doesn't matter for Nvidia because the Silicon Token LLM index only tracks spot prices does not hold. x.com
Nvidia offers better risk/reward than AMD because the growth gap between them is small while the valuation gap is wide. Nvidia is expected to grow earnings about 45% a year through 2028 versus about 43% for AMD, yet trades near 15x 2028 earnings against AMD's 30x. AMD is still liked long term, and MI450 and Helios could be huge and win it share, but the market already prices in much more of that upside. Nvidia's estimates can also keep rising, at larger scale and with stronger margins. x.com … Show more
Low PEG ratios and continuing AI demand make leading AI stocks attractive after rolling corrections. Nvidia is at 0.39x PEG, Amazon 0.64x, Broadcom 0.66x, Micron 0.73x, Oracle 0.59x and TSMC 0.41x. This usually signals at least a local bottom, possibly a major one; midterm-year seasonality helps into year-end. Nvidia, Broadcom and Amazon remain favorites; Micron and TSMC look buyable on dips. Low PEG can mislead if growth slows or estimates are wrong. x.com
Nvidia's $14 billion purchase of Hugging Face deepens a conglomerate discount that has been building. The business may be getting more insulated, but it is also getting harder to understand, which could add to the stock's lack of a multiple premium. This is a caution rather than an outright bearish call. x.com
Nvidia has never been cheaper on trailing earnings despite being the past decade's best-performing stock. Its trailing P/E is about 27.1x, near the bottom of the five-year range. x.com