Sam Badawi
Stock Analyst, Creator of Origins of Alpha & Quarterly Conviction
Fervo Energy's Google deal is far off while its risks are near. Google signed to buy 396 MW of geothermal power from Fervo starting only in 2028, with up to another 600 MW by 2030. Fervo is still pre-revenue, with heavy capex and execution risk, including about $1.2B of planned spending through Q1 2027. The market isn't buying data-center stories right now, and the stock's 20% gain had shrunk to 9%. x.comÂ
Fervo Energy's valuation remains excessive even after the stock has fallen sharply since its IPO. x.com x.comÂ
Constellation Energy's long-term contracts and growing nuclear-power demand underpin its appeal. It signed 15- to 20-year deals with Google, Amazon and Walmart in 2026, yet its forward P/E has fallen to about 20x from a massive 2025 premium. It looks like an even better bet today. x.comÂ
Google's power deal validates Fervo Energy's story after a rough August. On September 1 Google signed a 396MW PPA for Fervo's Cape Station enhanced geothermal power, scalable to nearly 1GW by 2030. That followed August 12 earnings that revealed Cape Station curtailment and cut guidance to $60-80M, and Hagens Berman is probing pre-IPO disclosure of that risk. The stock broke a falling wedge on monster volume; holding $18.79 points to $20.07, then $22.26 and $26.17. x.com x.comÂ
Fermi has no revenue and is only promising a 17 MW Texas project by 2032. Its steep share-price decline looks like capital markets disciplining a speculative business. x.comÂ
FuelCell Energy could ride AI data-center power demand with high-temperature fuel cells for clean baseload, scaling 12.5MW FuelCell Blocks for hyperscalers. At about a $650 million market cap, it has $170 million of TTM revenue, Q1 up 61%, a $1.17 billion backlog, $312 million of cash and output ramping to 350MW. Risks are negative gross margins, cash burn, dilution and unproven execution; @SueWallSt notes its 1.5GW of data center deals are proposals and backlog shrank. High risk, high reward. … Show more
Fervo Energy's first power at Cape Station in Utah is the first time a utility-scale enhanced geothermal project has reached that milestone anywhere, proving it for a multi-gigawatt build. Phase I's first 33 MW GeoBlock should reach commercial operation by October 1, the other two by January 1, 2027, and a further 400 MW is under construction for 2028. About 900 MW is contracted, with over 4 GW of capacity. Oil-and-gas horizontal drilling unlocks resources traditional geothermal could not reach. … Show more
Alphabet choosing Eos Energy's Z3 long-duration storage for its West Virginia data-center footprint is real hyperscaler validation and bullish for Eos. With AI and data centers becoming an enormous power story, this first Google project is exactly the type of customer validation to want. x.comÂ
FuelCell Energy's challenge is scaling, not demand, and scaling can be lumpy and more cash-heavy than estimated. Fuel cells are well placed, with Bloom accelerating and queued data centers favoring behind-the-meter power, but battery makers struggled to scale despite huge demand. It is unclear whether the recent raise fully funds capacity plans or leaves enough cushion to survive setbacks without more cash, and that margin of safety drives the valuation. x.comÂ
Vistra's story is easy to understand: AI data centers need far more power, and Vistra already owns the power plants. AWS and Meta have signed long-term nuclear deals for about 3.8 GW, some of whose upside isn't even in 2027 guidance yet, so demand is obvious before earnings fully catch up. x.comÂ
Vistra's roughly $4.2B in government financing to upgrade three of its four nuclear plants is very bullish, because nuclear power is growing scarce while AI data-center demand explodes. As an unregulated power producer, Vistra has more exposure to market-based electricity prices. The AI trade is becoming a power trade, and more nuclear deals should follow. x.com x.comÂ
