Hims & Hers is one to avoid because it has been forced out of higher-margin compounded GLP-1s into lower-margin business. x.com 

Hims & Hers will keep missing if Eli Lilly protects retatrutide with a biologic patent and traditional GLP-1 prices keep falling. Other peptides beyond GLP-1s are years away, and there are not enough effective and safe ones to drive meaningful revenue. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The FDA's crackdown on unapproved GLP-1 products is bullish for established developers Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly and Viking Therapeutics, a call Andrew Huberman got right. The FDA issued seven warning letters tied to more than 20 GLP-1 and other products sold "for research purposes" or "not for human consumption," warning they may pose serious health risks. x.com 

Novo Nordisk's management showed too little action against near-term problems, leaving the case in real doubt for the first time. A 5-10-year recovery plan clashes with the semaglutide patent expiring within that window, already lost in Canada, India and Turkey, while Eli Lilly poses real threats. Pipeline work in blood/endocrine, liver and cardiovascular is exciting and diversifying would be a game changer, and NovoCare is a positive, but the clock is running and management is uninspiring. … Show more

Hims & Hers faces mounting headwinds from an FTC lawsuit and a setback to its peptide expansion. The FTC alleges deceptive subscription practices and improper sharing of sensitive health data with ad platforms. An FDA advisory panel also voted against adding emideltide to the 503A Bulks List, a blow to Hims' peptide and compounding plans. x.com 

Peptides could fast-track Hims & Hers' patient network like Harry Potter did for Amazon. Its US-based supply chain, manufacturing and clinical network could serve new demand. The FDA's interim compounding policy cleared White House review and may be released any day, potentially allowing certain peptides; Lee Rosebush says six are in Category 1. The policy's terms remain unknown. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Eli Lilly has the market momentum over Novo Nordisk in GLP-1 drugs. Lilly's Zepbound sold $4B in Q1 against $2.7B for Novo's Wegovy, and Novo's lawsuit over GLP-1 advertising looks defensive. Lilly's direct-to-consumer head start and manufacturing scale appear durable. A GLP-1 market heading to $100B by 2030 remains the most structurally attractive healthcare trade. x.com 

Hims & Hers looks bearish on news that Chinese producers are moving into bootleg peptides sold in the US. Per a WSJ report shared by @tradfi, Chinese fentanyl precursor producers are pivoting to selling bootleg peptides in the US, and several Chinese peptide vendors were previously indicted in the US over the fentanyl trade. x.com 

RFK Jr.'s health department's notice that the FDA will not take action against pharmacies compounding six unapproved peptides brings Hims & Hers' peptide opportunity forward. Pharmacies can offer BPC-157, TB-500, epitalon, KPV, MOTS-c and semax now while a formal rule change is worked on. This is the most bullish news for Hims & Hers. x.com 

Hims & Hers faces continued selling pressure as GLP-1 competition intensifies. Q1 revenue of $608.1 million missed the $617.5 million estimate, gross margin was 65.0% versus 71.7% expected, and EPS turned negative for the first time since Q3 2023. Q2 EBITDA guidance of $35-55 million trailed the $70.1 million estimate, and the full-year EBITDA range was cut. Management's call for growth to reaccelerate from 4% to 18-20% looks doubtful, though revenue guidance and 30% short interest cap a short. … Show more