Novo Nordisk is the only undervalued GLP-1 obesity stock, with 40% of the global branded market. x.comÂ
Deep Value Investing
Value Investor, Long-Term Compounding
Novo Nordisk is one of the best opportunities in the market and a safe haven in an AI-driven market, crushed while its long-term growth story is rebuilt. It trades at 9x earnings with a 4.64% dividend yield, controls about 80% of the GLP-1 weight-loss pill market and plans to scale oral GLP-1 capacity 10x by 2030. Revenue growth is expected to return to double digits in 2027, and it has partnered with Anthropic on drug discovery. It would need a 110% rally to regain its 200-week average. x.comÂ
GLP-1 adoption is still early, leaving room for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to remain leaders. Use has climbed from 4% in 2024 to 11% now, but obesity is unlikely to become rare within a decade. Novo is much more compelling at current levels than Lilly. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk's management showed too little action against near-term problems, leaving the case in real doubt for the first time. A 5-10-year recovery plan clashes with the semaglutide patent expiring within that window, already lost in Canada, India and Turkey, while Eli Lilly poses real threats. Pipeline work in blood/endocrine, liver and cardiovascular is exciting and diversifying would be a game changer, and NovoCare is a positive, but the clock is running and management is uninspiring. … Show more
Novo Nordisk is priced as if its story were permanently broken, and it is not. GLP-1 competition, pricing pressure and weaker guidance are fair concerns, but it remains one of the most important healthcare companies in the world, in one of the biggest markets on earth. Along with ServiceNow, it is one of the two names most liked at current levels, and its drawdown looks interesting. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk is an attractive name to own now, undervalued against Eli Lilly while the GLP-1 market grows. Its earnings were excellent yet the stock barely moved, and it announced a new partnership with Amazon. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly has the market momentum over Novo Nordisk in GLP-1 drugs. Lilly's Zepbound sold $4B in Q1 against $2.7B for Novo's Wegovy, and Novo's lawsuit over GLP-1 advertising looks defensive. Lilly's direct-to-consumer head start and manufacturing scale appear durable. A GLP-1 market heading to $100B by 2030 remains the most structurally attractive healthcare trade. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk can bounce 100% and still be undervalued now that retail has given up on it. It is consolidating above its 200-month moving average, now moves with the US market, offers a 4.4% dividend and sits in one of the biggest sectors, given how many people struggle to put the fork down when full. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk is an excellent stock to accumulate gradually after falling more than 70% from its peak, with 2026 looking like a near-term bottom. At about $40.50 it trades at 11-12 times forward earnings, below peers, and analyst targets of $57-65 imply 40-60% upside. Indirect April data show 25mg oral Wegovy beating rivals on weight loss with milder side effects. An OpenAI drug-discovery alliance, a DKK 15 billion buyback, a 4.45% dividend yield and gross margins above 82% add support. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk carries too much legal drama to invest in, with lawsuits piling up. The latest, per @AIStockSavvy, is Viatris suing Novo over a patent dispute on generic Wegovy. x.comÂ
Novo Nordisk could run with healthcare stocks as tech sells off, helped by the midterm health trend of the last 20 years. The market seems to be looking for value in health and pharma. Novo's $11.8 billion in free cash flow and major buybacks at these levels should eventually lift its depressed price once investors realize Novo and Eli Lilly can both do well in oral GLP-1s, where Novo leads. Novo might have found a bottom. x.comÂ