Novo Nordisk's management showed too little action against near-term problems, leaving the case in real doubt for the first time. A 5-10-year recovery plan clashes with the semaglutide patent expiring within that window, already lost in Canada, India and Turkey, while Eli Lilly poses real threats. Pipeline work in blood/endocrine, liver and cardiovascular is exciting and diversifying would be a game changer, and NovoCare is a positive, but the clock is running and management is uninspiring. … Show more

Eli Lilly has the market momentum over Novo Nordisk in GLP-1 drugs. Lilly's Zepbound sold $4B in Q1 against $2.7B for Novo's Wegovy, and Novo's lawsuit over GLP-1 advertising looks defensive. Lilly's direct-to-consumer head start and manufacturing scale appear durable. A GLP-1 market heading to $100B by 2030 remains the most structurally attractive healthcare trade. x.com 

Novo Nordisk is priced as if its story were permanently broken, and it is not. GLP-1 competition, pricing pressure and weaker guidance are fair concerns, but it remains one of the most important healthcare companies in the world, in one of the biggest markets on earth. Along with ServiceNow, it is one of the two names most liked at current levels, and its drawdown looks interesting. x.com 

Novo Nordisk's P/E is expected to rise because its earnings are expected to drop. The market is forward-looking, not backward-looking, and it doesn't like companies that have completely messed up for years, as Novo has. x.com 

Novo Nordisk's AI partnerships won't pay off in the stock until its R&D bill starts behaving differently. R&D rose from DKK 14.2bn in 2019 to DKK 52.0bn in 2025, from 11.7% to 16.8% of sales, and 2026 brought a failed ZEUS trial, DKK 6.3bn of pipeline impairments and sales guided at 0% to -6%. The stock fell hard on those events but barely moved on the OpenAI, AWS and Anthropic deals. Disclosing a metric like time from target to first human dose would make them priceable. x.com 

Novo Nordisk's investors will eventually focus on the potential of oral Wegovy and put past setbacks behind them, a certainty because the market is forward-looking. Reports say the orals are selling, and buyers have been accumulating the stock. x.com  x.com 

Hims & Hers' distribution case is stronger because Novo Nordisk chose to sell through it after suing it. Nearly 2.9 million subscribers spend $92 monthly on average, up 21%, as customers add products. The base case is $117-$156 by 2030. Branded weight-loss drugs broke margin expansion for a year, maybe more. FTC cancellation claims pose a retention risk, though growth does not suggest trapped customers. Subscriber growth stalling or retention built on friction would prompt a sale. x.com 

Hims & Hers is undervalued because the market still prices its old compounding-dependent business, not the platform rebuilt around a Novo Nordisk partnership. Wegovy now launches through Hims, an FDA-sanctioned GLP-1 channel, and app downloads went 4x overnight. It trades at 17x forward EBITDA versus a 22x history, despite 72% gross margins, 2.5 million subscribers and monthly revenue per subscriber up to $83 in 2025 from $65. Target: $85 by December 2026. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Novo Nordisk could run with healthcare stocks as tech sells off, helped by the midterm health trend of the last 20 years. The market seems to be looking for value in health and pharma. Novo's $11.8 billion in free cash flow and major buybacks at these levels should eventually lift its depressed price once investors realize Novo and Eli Lilly can both do well in oral GLP-1s, where Novo leads. Novo might have found a bottom. x.com 

Eli Lilly cannot keep charging 2-4x the price of Novo Nordisk's older weight-loss drugs if Novo aggressively defends market share on price, because Lilly's drugs are only marginally more effective. That makes HSBC's view that weight-loss drug expectations are overinflated look obviously correct. x.com