Architect of Alpha
Long-Term Stock Investor
Hims & Hers' distribution case is stronger because Novo Nordisk chose to sell through it after suing it. Nearly 2.9 million subscribers spend $92 monthly on average, up 21%, as customers add products. The base case is $117-$156 by 2030. Branded weight-loss drugs broke margin expansion for a year, maybe more. FTC cancellation claims pose a retention risk, though growth does not suggest trapped customers. Subscriber growth stalling or retention built on friction would prompt a sale. x.com
Hims & Hers is growing fast but spending faster, with margins melting. Second-quarter revenue rose 38% to $753.2 million, but gross margin fell from 76% to 64% on a shift toward lower-margin products such as GLP-1s, and G&A more than doubled to $165 million. Operating income swung from a $26.7 million profit to a $97.2 million loss, and net income from $42.5 million to a loss of $86.3 million. x.com
Hims & Hers' shift from compounded GLP-1s to branded treatments like Novo Nordisk's validates the thesis rather than hurting it, making it one of the most asymmetric buys in the market. Hims is sacrificing short-term margins to bring blockbuster weight-loss drugs onto its platform, then cross-sell higher-margin treatments. Subscribers rose 307K in Q2, partly from the Eucalyptus acquisition, and more customers bring more data, better personalization and outcomes, and more customers. x.com
Hims & Hers is undervalued because the market still prices its old compounding-dependent business, not the platform rebuilt around a Novo Nordisk partnership. Wegovy now launches through Hims, an FDA-sanctioned GLP-1 channel, and app downloads went 4x overnight. It trades at 17x forward EBITDA versus a 22x history, despite 72% gross margins, 2.5 million subscribers and monthly revenue per subscriber up to $83 in 2025 from $65. Target: $85 by December 2026. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Hims & Hers is one to avoid because it has been forced out of higher-margin compounded GLP-1s into lower-margin business. x.com
Hims & Hers is scaling quickly as branded weight-loss treatments and international expansion add growth. Q2 revenue rose nearly 40% to $753M, subscribers grew by 300,000 to near 3 million, and full-year revenue guidance rose to $3.1-3.3B. International revenue rose more than 17-fold on the Eucalyptus acquisition, and branded weight-management offerings added over 125,000 users since spring. AI handles about 80% of customer inquiries, cutting non-clinical support costs nearly 50%. x.com
The FDA's move on peptides is the biggest catalyst yet for Hims & Hers revenue re-acceleration, likely trapping short sellers. HHS Secretary Kennedy said the FDA will remove 12 peptides including BPC-157 and GHK-Cu from its high-risk category for review. Hims can capture this grey-market TAM at ~70–80% compounded margins through what may be the largest independent DTC network and its own peptide plants. 200k subscribers at $150–300 a month is $360M+ of ARR. Short interest tops 30%. x.com
Hims & Hers faces mounting headwinds from an FTC lawsuit and a setback to its peptide expansion. The FTC alleges deceptive subscription practices and improper sharing of sensitive health data with ad platforms. An FDA advisory panel also voted against adding emideltide to the 503A Bulks List, a blow to Hims' peptide and compounding plans. x.com
Hims & Hers can 10x on GLP-1s and international expansion. It has a $6.86B market cap against $2.58B of trailing revenue growing 28%, with 3 million subscribers. x.com x.com
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have one of the best businesses on earth because their weight-loss drugs treat obesity's symptom, not its cause. Patients cannot stop taking them without the weight returning, while the food, behavior and environment that drove US obesity from 13% in 1962 to over 40% today remain. A drug taken forever for a worsening problem beats a one-time cure. High cost, GI side effects, muscle loss, dropout and incomplete long-term data limit use. x.com
Hims & Hers is not a $100 stock yet, because growth is slowing and there is no new driver on the scale of GLP-1. Customer acquisition and conversion are slowing and average spend per user is declining, which quarter-over-quarter figures show better than the 40%+ year-over-year narrative. Guidance was narrowed and comparisons get harder. Investing on past strong growth is looking backward. Hims is a great company, but the stock will take time to reach new highs. x.com
Hims & Hers is a telehealth powerhouse whose rapid expansion into GLP-1 weight-loss offerings is driving hyper-growth in revenue and subscribers. Its legal issues are now behind it. x.com
