Hims & Hers' distribution case is stronger because Novo Nordisk chose to sell through it after suing it. Nearly 2.9 million subscribers spend $92 monthly on average, up 21%, as customers add products. The base case is $117-$156 by 2030. Branded weight-loss drugs broke margin expansion for a year, maybe more. FTC cancellation claims pose a retention risk, though growth does not suggest trapped customers. Subscriber growth stalling or retention built on friction would prompt a sale. x.com 

Novo Nordisk trades at its lowest valuation ever, about 7x earnings, in the same year it launched one of the most in-demand oral medications in the world. Competition from Eli Lilly is a real headwind, but even if Novo's oral market share fell to 50% it should do fine, and an expected 1-3% earnings drop next year hardly justifies 7x. Novo should still be competing at a similar scale in seven years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hims & Hers is one to avoid because it has been forced out of higher-margin compounded GLP-1s into lower-margin business. x.com 

Hims & Hers' compounding direct-to-consumer distribution makes it stupidly undervalued next to Tempus AI. Hims has $2.6B in trailing revenue at a $6.7B market cap, with 66.5% annual revenue growth from Q3 2021 to Q2 2026; Tempus has $1.4B in revenue, a $14.9B market cap and 40.4% annual growth. x.com 

Hims & Hers should improve in Q2 as Novo Nordisk products began shipping only in April; Q3 is expected to reaccelerate as branded GLP-1 sales ramp. Q1 revenue of $608M missed the $616.8M estimate, and EPS was -$0.40 versus $0.03 expected. Q2 revenue guidance is $680-700M and FY2026 guidance is $2.8-3.0B. A $3.8-3.9B FY2026 base case assumes roughly $400M from Eucalyptus after a midyear close; a later close would reduce that contribution. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hims & Hers looks good on paper, but past revenue growth does not guarantee future growth and margins are falling, which is very bad. Its peptides story could rerate the stock if executed, but it brings another regulatory overhang: peptides will be in regulation headlines every day and the stock will trade on them. x.com 

Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill is pharma's holy grail and is expanding the obesity market. Its first quarter after launch was stellar, with about 1 million new patients in three months per @TTRAmyloid. Per Novo's CEO, about 35% of pill users are men versus roughly 25% on injections, and 80% of pill starters never tried a GLP-1 before. The 30-minute fasting rule is no real obstacle, especially as the pill sharply cuts hunger, and data so far show better efficacy beats convenience. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Hims & Hers can 10x on GLP-1s and international expansion. It has a $6.86B market cap against $2.58B of trailing revenue growing 28%, with 3 million subscribers. x.com  x.com 

Hims & Hers is not a $100 stock yet, because growth is slowing and there is no new driver on the scale of GLP-1. Customer acquisition and conversion are slowing and average spend per user is declining, which quarter-over-quarter figures show better than the 40%+ year-over-year narrative. Guidance was narrowed and comparisons get harder. Investing on past strong growth is looking backward. Hims is a great company, but the stock will take time to reach new highs. x.com 

Hims & Hers' shift from compounded GLP-1s to branded treatments like Novo Nordisk's validates the thesis rather than hurting it, making it one of the most asymmetric buys in the market. Hims is sacrificing short-term margins to bring blockbuster weight-loss drugs onto its platform, then cross-sell higher-margin treatments. Subscribers rose 307K in Q2, partly from the Eucalyptus acquisition, and more customers bring more data, better personalization and outcomes, and more customers. x.com