Mike
Long-Term Investor, Technology & Crypto
Hims & Hers should improve in Q2 as Novo Nordisk products began shipping only in April; Q3 is expected to reaccelerate as branded GLP-1 sales ramp. Q1 revenue of $608M missed the $616.8M estimate, and EPS was -$0.40 versus $0.03 expected. Q2 revenue guidance is $680-700M and FY2026 guidance is $2.8-3.0B. A $3.8-3.9B FY2026 base case assumes roughly $400M from Eucalyptus after a midyear close; a later close would reduce that contribution. x.com x.com x.com
Hims & Hers' Eli Lilly partnership makes it the front-end platform for GLP-1 care, offering every major branded GLP-1, and could lift it well above $100 by year end as short sellers cover. Providers can now prescribe Zepbound vials, KwikPens and oral Foundayo through LillyDirect at self-pay prices, alongside Novo Nordisk's Wegovy. Owning the customer relationship and data across weight loss and other verticals should lift retention and cross-selling; international revenue may top $200M in 2026. x.com
Hims & Hers' distribution case is stronger because Novo Nordisk chose to sell through it after suing it. Nearly 2.9 million subscribers spend $92 monthly on average, up 21%, as customers add products. The base case is $117-$156 by 2030. Branded weight-loss drugs broke margin expansion for a year, maybe more. FTC cancellation claims pose a retention risk, though growth does not suggest trapped customers. Subscriber growth stalling or retention built on friction would prompt a sale. x.com
Eli Lilly's broader biology opportunity leaves far more upside than most appreciate. Q3 earnings crushed estimates as expected: revenue was $24.4B versus $22.6B expected, and adjusted EPS was $7.48 versus $6.50. GLP-1s fund its longer-term drug-discovery platform rather than defining the whole thesis. x.com
Hims & Hers faces continued selling pressure as GLP-1 competition intensifies. Q1 revenue of $608.1 million missed the $617.5 million estimate, gross margin was 65.0% versus 71.7% expected, and EPS turned negative for the first time since Q3 2023. Q2 EBITDA guidance of $35-55 million trailed the $70.1 million estimate, and the full-year EBITDA range was cut. Management's call for growth to reaccelerate from 4% to 18-20% looks doubtful, though revenue guidance and 30% short interest cap a short. … Show more
Hims & Hers' shift from compounded GLP-1s to branded treatments like Novo Nordisk's validates the thesis rather than hurting it, making it one of the most asymmetric buys in the market. Hims is sacrificing short-term margins to bring blockbuster weight-loss drugs onto its platform, then cross-sell higher-margin treatments. Subscribers rose 307K in Q2, partly from the Eucalyptus acquisition, and more customers bring more data, better personalization and outcomes, and more customers. x.com
Hims & Hers is undervalued because the market still prices its old compounding-dependent business, not the platform rebuilt around a Novo Nordisk partnership. Wegovy now launches through Hims, an FDA-sanctioned GLP-1 channel, and app downloads went 4x overnight. It trades at 17x forward EBITDA versus a 22x history, despite 72% gross margins, 2.5 million subscribers and monthly revenue per subscriber up to $83 in 2025 from $65. Target: $85 by December 2026. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Hims & Hers is one to avoid because it has been forced out of higher-margin compounded GLP-1s into lower-margin business. x.com
Novo Nordisk could run with healthcare stocks as tech sells off, helped by the midterm health trend of the last 20 years. The market seems to be looking for value in health and pharma. Novo's $11.8 billion in free cash flow and major buybacks at these levels should eventually lift its depressed price once investors realize Novo and Eli Lilly can both do well in oral GLP-1s, where Novo leads. Novo might have found a bottom. x.com
Novo Nordisk is one of the best opportunities in the market and a safe haven in an AI-driven market, crushed while its long-term growth story is rebuilt. It trades at 9x earnings with a 4.64% dividend yield, controls about 80% of the GLP-1 weight-loss pill market and plans to scale oral GLP-1 capacity 10x by 2030. Revenue growth is expected to return to double digits in 2027, and it has partnered with Anthropic on drug discovery. It would need a 110% rally to regain its 200-week average. x.com
Hims & Hers is executing poorly despite its potential, and its appeal as a retail darling is fading after a rough first quarter. Per @himshouse, revenue was $608 million versus $617 million expected, EPS was -$0.40 versus $0.03 expected, and gross margin fell to 65% from 73% a year earlier, while subscribers grew 9% to 2.584 million. CEO Andrew Dudum can do better. x.com
Eli Lilly's Foundayo demand looks stronger than its Q3 sales miss implies. The miss looks like timing and inventory, not weak demand: the pill now has about 40% of new US oral GLP-1 prescriptions, roughly double last quarter. Lilly has 63% of the US GLP-1 market; new overseas pill launches could add another leg next quarter. Foundayo could eventually outsell both Mounjaro and Zepbound. GLP-1 revenue funds Lilly's AI drug-discovery ambitions. x.com
