Oliver | MMMT Wealth
Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Eli Lilly's broader biology opportunity leaves far more upside than most appreciate. Q3 earnings crushed estimates as expected: revenue was $24.4B versus $22.6B expected, and adjusted EPS was $7.48 versus $6.50. GLP-1s fund its longer-term drug-discovery platform rather than defining the whole thesis. x.com
Eli Lilly could be worth $5–7 trillion by 2033, among the world's three largest companies, if the market prices it as infrastructure for biology rather than a drug company. FY26 revenue is already about $86B, and its metabolic franchise can exceed $150B by the early 2030s. GLP-1 cash funds the real product: biological AI, next-generation peptides, and the labs and compute behind them. x.com x.com
Eli Lilly should see further positive revenue revisions as it expands the weight-loss market by reducing gastrointestinal side effects and lowering treatment costs. Strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound drove a second FY2026 revenue guidance raise in three months, to $91B-$92B from $85B-$87B. Lilly Direct and the Medicare Bridge program for seniors aim to make treatment cheaper. At 29x 2027 earnings against 15% revenue and 20% EPS growth projected for 2027-30, Lilly still looks cheap. x.com
Eli Lilly's Foundayo demand looks stronger than its Q3 sales miss implies. The miss looks like timing and inventory, not weak demand: the pill now has about 40% of new US oral GLP-1 prescriptions, roughly double last quarter. Lilly has 63% of the US GLP-1 market; new overseas pill launches could add another leg next quarter. Foundayo could eventually outsell both Mounjaro and Zepbound. GLP-1 revenue funds Lilly's AI drug-discovery ambitions. x.com
Eli Lilly looks expensive at 26x forward earnings when drugmakers usually get 20x. Fair value is about $820.69-$1,045, or 20x next year's $46.63 EPS give or take 12%, so the $1,215 price sits 16% above the top of that range. The valuation also leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 55% above trailing. This is a valuation-level read only, not fundamental work. x.com
Eli Lilly can reinvest its GLP-1 cash flow into biological intelligence, building on the growth of its metabolic drugs. AI agent swarms working on scientific problems underpin the view that Lilly is becoming the world's most important AI company and could be the largest US company by decade's end. 2027 will be a year of cures and AI-driven scientific breakthroughs. x.com
Eli Lilly's GLP-1 and metabolic franchise can compound demand and cash flows while rate fears punish leveraged AI stories. It is preferable as a defensive-growth holding into its October 29 earnings over chasing a chip bounce. Continued healthcare volume leadership would support the sleeve; if semiconductors reclaim leadership first, the rotation is already crowded the other way. x.com x.com
Eli Lilly is overvalued and needs to pull back, since a 40 P/E is high for any biotech or healthcare stock, which keeps Novo Nordisk the better side of the pair. A post the author replies to calls Novo an excellent entry today but doubts shorting Lilly given how much it has going on. x.com
GLP-1 drugs are a secular shift in healthcare spending, and Eli Lilly is leading it. Q1 revenue rose 56% to $19.8B, with Mounjaro up 125% to $8.66B and Zepbound up 80% to $4.16B, and full-year guidance was raised to $82-85B. GLP-1 patients are expected to grow from 20 million to 30 million globally by year-end, and FDA approval of the oral GLP-1 orforglipron expands the addressable market further. x.com
Eli Lilly at new record highs still trades at only 26x forward earnings despite 55% revenue growth and triple-digit EPS growth last quarter. EPS is projected to grow 51% this year. x.com
Eli Lilly is too expensive a stock to be interesting, and its oral pill Foundayo is not serious competition for Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy. A post the author quotes calls the launch a disaster: Lilly still hasn't given prescription figures three weeks in, as Novo did in January, and 35% of volume coming from telehealth suggests Lilly Direct is not performing well. x.com
Eli Lilly using its GLP-1 cash to buy a psychedelics company is a welcome move. x.com
