Rich Peter
Investor, Crypto, US Stocks & High-Dividend ETFs
Eli Lilly's GLP-1 and metabolic franchise can compound demand and cash flows while rate fears punish leveraged AI stories. It is preferable as a defensive-growth holding into its October 29 earnings over chasing a chip bounce. Continued healthcare volume leadership would support the sleeve; if semiconductors reclaim leadership first, the rotation is already crowded the other way. x.com x.comÂ
Eli Lilly's broader biology opportunity leaves far more upside than most appreciate. Q3 earnings crushed estimates as expected: revenue was $24.4B versus $22.6B expected, and adjusted EPS was $7.48 versus $6.50. GLP-1s fund its longer-term drug-discovery platform rather than defining the whole thesis. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly can reinvest its GLP-1 cash flow into biological intelligence, building on the growth of its metabolic drugs. AI agent swarms working on scientific problems underpin the view that Lilly is becoming the world's most important AI company and could be the largest US company by decade's end. 2027 will be a year of cures and AI-driven scientific breakthroughs. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly is overvalued and needs to pull back, since a 40 P/E is high for any biotech or healthcare stock, which keeps Novo Nordisk the better side of the pair. A post the author replies to calls Novo an excellent entry today but doubts shorting Lilly given how much it has going on. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly's Foundayo demand looks stronger than its Q3 sales miss implies. The miss looks like timing and inventory, not weak demand: the pill now has about 40% of new US oral GLP-1 prescriptions, roughly double last quarter. Lilly has 63% of the US GLP-1 market; new overseas pill launches could add another leg next quarter. Foundayo could eventually outsell both Mounjaro and Zepbound. GLP-1 revenue funds Lilly's AI drug-discovery ambitions. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly earns its place in a portfolio with a defensive profile plus tech-like growth rates, a strength that stands out on a down day for the market. An IBD MarketSurge chart accompanies the point. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly looks expensive at 26x forward earnings when drugmakers usually get 20x. Fair value is about $820.69-$1,045, or 20x next year's $46.63 EPS give or take 12%, so the $1,215 price sits 16% above the top of that range. The valuation also leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 55% above trailing. This is a valuation-level read only, not fundamental work. x.comÂ
GLP-1 drugs are a secular shift in healthcare spending, and Eli Lilly is leading it. Q1 revenue rose 56% to $19.8B, with Mounjaro up 125% to $8.66B and Zepbound up 80% to $4.16B, and full-year guidance was raised to $82-85B. GLP-1 patients are expected to grow from 20 million to 30 million globally by year-end, and FDA approval of the oral GLP-1 orforglipron expands the addressable market further. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly using its GLP-1 cash to buy a psychedelics company is a welcome move. x.comÂ
Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo is an absolute disaster, and the stock cannot keep pretending otherwise. Per @investseekers, it logged 5,167 prescriptions in its 10th week after launch, versus 71,988 for Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy in its comparable week. Over the long term people will prefer pills to injections, so retatrutide does not make the pill irrelevant. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Eli Lilly merits an Overweight rating and a $1,300 December 2026 target because its pipeline extends the GLP-1 franchise well beyond obesity, and the supply worry that distracted the market is over. Orforglipron, the key underpriced catalyst, beat Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in Phase 3 without food or water limits and launches in H1 2026, opening a far larger pill market. Zepbound sales rose 123% and Mounjaro hit 758,000 weekly scripts, driving leverage. Novo's CagriSema is the main risk. … Show more
