Eli Lilly is too expensive a stock to be interesting, and its oral pill Foundayo is not serious competition for Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy. A post the author quotes calls the launch a disaster: Lilly still hasn't given prescription figures three weeks in, as Novo did in January, and 35% of volume coming from telehealth suggests Lilly Direct is not performing well. x.com 

Eli Lilly cannot keep charging 2-4x the price of Novo Nordisk's older weight-loss drugs if Novo aggressively defends market share on price, because Lilly's drugs are only marginally more effective. That makes HSBC's view that weight-loss drug expectations are overinflated look obviously correct. x.com 

Eli Lilly's Foundayo demand looks stronger than its Q3 sales miss implies. The miss looks like timing and inventory, not weak demand: the pill now has about 40% of new US oral GLP-1 prescriptions, roughly double last quarter. Lilly has 63% of the US GLP-1 market; new overseas pill launches could add another leg next quarter. Foundayo could eventually outsell both Mounjaro and Zepbound. GLP-1 revenue funds Lilly's AI drug-discovery ambitions. x.com 

Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill is pharma's holy grail and is expanding the obesity market. Its first quarter after launch was stellar, with about 1 million new patients in three months per @TTRAmyloid. Per Novo's CEO, about 35% of pill users are men versus roughly 25% on injections, and 80% of pill starters never tried a GLP-1 before. The 30-minute fasting rule is no real obstacle, especially as the pill sharply cuts hunger, and data so far show better efficacy beats convenience. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Oral Wegovy removes one of the biggest barriers to GLP-1 adoption, yet investors are still sleeping on Novo Nordisk even though prescription data already show the launch going very well. Per @agingroy, Ozempic and Mounjaro generated $71 billion in 2025, more than OpenAI and Anthropic's combined $29 billion, and only about 2% of the 800 million eligible patients can currently access them. x.com 

Eli Lilly should see further positive revenue revisions as it expands the weight-loss market by reducing gastrointestinal side effects and lowering treatment costs. Strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound drove a second FY2026 revenue guidance raise in three months, to $91B-$92B from $85B-$87B. Lilly Direct and the Medicare Bridge program for seniors aim to make treatment cheaper. At 29x 2027 earnings against 15% revenue and 20% EPS growth projected for 2027-30, Lilly still looks cheap. x.com 

Hims & Hers' distribution case is stronger because Novo Nordisk chose to sell through it after suing it. Nearly 2.9 million subscribers spend $92 monthly on average, up 21%, as customers add products. The base case is $117-$156 by 2030. Branded weight-loss drugs broke margin expansion for a year, maybe more. FTC cancellation claims pose a retention risk, though growth does not suggest trapped customers. Subscriber growth stalling or retention built on friction would prompt a sale. x.com 

Novo Nordisk's investors will eventually focus on the potential of oral Wegovy and put past setbacks behind them, a certainty because the market is forward-looking. Reports say the orals are selling, and buyers have been accumulating the stock. x.com  x.com 

Eli Lilly's broader biology opportunity leaves far more upside than most appreciate. Q3 earnings crushed estimates as expected: revenue was $24.4B versus $22.6B expected, and adjusted EPS was $7.48 versus $6.50. GLP-1s fund its longer-term drug-discovery platform rather than defining the whole thesis. x.com 

Hims & Hers is undervalued because the market still prices its old compounding-dependent business, not the platform rebuilt around a Novo Nordisk partnership. Wegovy now launches through Hims, an FDA-sanctioned GLP-1 channel, and app downloads went 4x overnight. It trades at 17x forward EBITDA versus a 22x history, despite 72% gross margins, 2.5 million subscribers and monthly revenue per subscriber up to $83 in 2025 from $65. Target: $85 by December 2026. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more