Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 pill Foundayo is an absolute disaster, and the stock cannot keep pretending otherwise. Per @investseekers, it logged 5,167 prescriptions in its 10th week after launch, versus 71,988 for Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy in its comparable week. Over the long term people will prefer pills to injections, so retatrutide does not make the pill irrelevant. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Eli Lilly cannot keep charging 2-4x the price of Novo Nordisk's older weight-loss drugs if Novo aggressively defends market share on price, because Lilly's drugs are only marginally more effective. That makes HSBC's view that weight-loss drug expectations are overinflated look obviously correct. x.com 

Eli Lilly's Foundayo demand looks stronger than its Q3 sales miss implies. The miss looks like timing and inventory, not weak demand: the pill now has about 40% of new US oral GLP-1 prescriptions, roughly double last quarter. Lilly has 63% of the US GLP-1 market; new overseas pill launches could add another leg next quarter. Foundayo could eventually outsell both Mounjaro and Zepbound. GLP-1 revenue funds Lilly's AI drug-discovery ambitions. x.com 

A crowded obesity-drug market could leave Viking Therapeutics fighting for fewer patients at much lower prices. Viking's CEO said a potential launch is about two and a half years away; in three years, Viking could be just another competitor. Hepatitis C blockbusters from many companies once faced too few patients to treat, a warning for long-term holders. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Novo Nordisk could run with healthcare stocks as tech sells off, helped by the midterm health trend of the last 20 years. The market seems to be looking for value in health and pharma. Novo's $11.8 billion in free cash flow and major buybacks at these levels should eventually lift its depressed price once investors realize Novo and Eli Lilly can both do well in oral GLP-1s, where Novo leads. Novo might have found a bottom. x.com 

Eli Lilly should see further positive revenue revisions as it expands the weight-loss market by reducing gastrointestinal side effects and lowering treatment costs. Strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound drove a second FY2026 revenue guidance raise in three months, to $91B-$92B from $85B-$87B. Lilly Direct and the Medicare Bridge program for seniors aim to make treatment cheaper. At 29x 2027 earnings against 15% revenue and 20% EPS growth projected for 2027-30, Lilly still looks cheap. x.com 

Eli Lilly is overvalued and needs to pull back, since a 40 P/E is high for any biotech or healthcare stock, which keeps Novo Nordisk the better side of the pair. A post the author replies to calls Novo an excellent entry today but doubts shorting Lilly given how much it has going on. x.com 

Ginkgo Bioworks is a highly speculative bet that its new autonomous AI wet lab concept makes this time different. Serious partnerships with Google, OpenAI and now Eli Lilly, which drove the recent jump, add confirmation and more confidence to hold, and the move may be just getting started. The risk is management's bad history of reverse splits, pivots and dilution. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Eli Lilly's broader biology opportunity leaves far more upside than most appreciate. Q3 earnings crushed estimates as expected: revenue was $24.4B versus $22.6B expected, and adjusted EPS was $7.48 versus $6.50. GLP-1s fund its longer-term drug-discovery platform rather than defining the whole thesis. x.com 

Novo Nordisk is worthwhile even with underwhelming 2030 targets, because the market prices in almost zero growth and it does not need 10% annual growth to pay off. Its goal of revenue growth in line with major pharma peers is realistic and puts growth back on the table, though clearer numbers are needed. Management credibility is a concern after a hot mic at its Capital Markets Day caught someone saying it is almost impossible to provide guidance, per @investseekers. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com