Viking Therapeutics is just another GLP-1 drug in a sea of many and will get crushed commercially by the big drugmakers. In a biotech bubble, only companies with a broad, diverse pipeline of potential blockbusters are worth owning. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics selling shares at $35 caps its upside; it should accept a buyout at double that price instead. It priced 7.85 million shares at $35 alongside $225 million of 2% convertible notes due 2032, after upsizing both offerings from $200 million. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics holds the most valuable obesity peptide real estate outside Eli Lilly, making it a $100 stock in plain sight. VK2735 keeps producing compelling injectable and oral data, with the oral candidate surprising many and looking more competitive than Novo's oral program. Big Pharma badly needs differentiated obesity assets and Viking is one of few quality independents left, so a buyout would be no surprise and a bidding war could send it to $100+ fast. Alone it is a 3-5x story. … Show more

Hims & Hers' distribution case is stronger because Novo Nordisk chose to sell through it after suing it. Nearly 2.9 million subscribers spend $92 monthly on average, up 21%, as customers add products. The base case is $117-$156 by 2030. Branded weight-loss drugs broke margin expansion for a year, maybe more. FTC cancellation claims pose a retention risk, though growth does not suggest trapped customers. Subscriber growth stalling or retention built on friction would prompt a sale. x.com 

Eli Lilly merits an Overweight rating and a $1,300 December 2026 target because its pipeline extends the GLP-1 franchise well beyond obesity, and the supply worry that distracted the market is over. Orforglipron, the key underpriced catalyst, beat Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide in Phase 3 without food or water limits and launches in H1 2026, opening a far larger pill market. Zepbound sales rose 123% and Mounjaro hit 758,000 weekly scripts, driving leverage. Novo's CagriSema is the main risk. … Show more

Viking Therapeutics now has enough cash to finish its phase 3 trials, so it can hold out for a home-run acquisition offer, likely nothing below $200 a share after its positive maintenance trial. The offering added $547.8M, lifting cash to about $1B, enough for roughly 24 months at a bit over $40M of monthly burn, though phase 3 may burn faster, and possibly close to the NDA stage. Dilution of 9% from stock and 5% from converts will be worth it. x.com  x.com 

Novo Nordisk's management showed too little action against near-term problems, leaving the case in real doubt for the first time. A 5-10-year recovery plan clashes with the semaglutide patent expiring within that window, already lost in Canada, India and Turkey, while Eli Lilly poses real threats. Pipeline work in blood/endocrine, liver and cardiovascular is exciting and diversifying would be a game changer, and NovoCare is a positive, but the clock is running and management is uninspiring. … Show more

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have one of the best businesses on earth because their weight-loss drugs treat obesity's symptom, not its cause. Patients cannot stop taking them without the weight returning, while the food, behavior and environment that drove US obesity from 13% in 1962 to over 40% today remain. A drug taken forever for a worsening problem beats a one-time cure. High cost, GI side effects, muscle loss, dropout and incomplete long-term data limit use. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics gets zero credit for what has long looked like a top obesity drug. In its VK2735 maintenance study, patients switched to less-frequent dosing, including monthly, kept up to about 97% of prior weight loss and reached about 22% total over 33 weeks, addressing the weight-regain concern. The results came a day after Novo Nordisk signaled bigger obesity M&A, reviving takeout speculation, yet no one has bought Viking. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Hims & Hers may benefit as GLP-1 drugmakers lose pricing power. With dozens of GLP-1s in development on top of those available today, no pharmaceutical company appears to have sustainable pricing power, which looks good for Hims & Hers. x.com