A crowded obesity-drug market could leave Viking Therapeutics fighting for fewer patients at much lower prices. Viking's CEO said a potential launch is about two and a half years away; in three years, Viking could be just another competitor. Hepatitis C blockbusters from many companies once faced too few patients to treat, a warning for long-term holders. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Viking Therapeutics selling shares at $35 caps its upside; it should accept a buyout at double that price instead. It priced 7.85 million shares at $35 alongside $225 million of 2% convertible notes due 2032, after upsizing both offerings from $200 million. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics is a beaten-down stock with good news. It has great Phase 1 data and more capital, after a 33% decline from recent highs. x.com  x.com 

Eli Lilly's broader biology opportunity leaves far more upside than most appreciate. Q3 earnings crushed estimates as expected: revenue was $24.4B versus $22.6B expected, and adjusted EPS was $7.48 versus $6.50. GLP-1s fund its longer-term drug-discovery platform rather than defining the whole thesis. x.com 

Significant discounts to broader pharmaceutical industry valuations on projected 2031 earnings make some high-quality mid-cap biotech stocks attractive. Many have cleared Phase 3 trials or reached more advanced stages, and some may reach profitability without more capital, an advantage if financing tightens. Selling these stocks to chase speculative biotech or large pharma at historically elevated multiples makes little sense. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics holds the most valuable obesity peptide real estate outside Eli Lilly, making it a $100 stock in plain sight. VK2735 keeps producing compelling injectable and oral data, with the oral candidate surprising many and looking more competitive than Novo's oral program. Big Pharma badly needs differentiated obesity assets and Viking is one of few quality independents left, so a buyout would be no surprise and a bidding war could send it to $100+ fast. Alone it is a 3-5x story. … Show more

Novo Nordisk is priced as if its story were permanently broken, and it is not. GLP-1 competition, pricing pressure and weaker guidance are fair concerns, but it remains one of the most important healthcare companies in the world, in one of the biggest markets on earth. Along with ServiceNow, it is one of the two names most liked at current levels, and its drawdown looks interesting. x.com 

Novo Nordisk is one of the best opportunities in the market and a safe haven in an AI-driven market, crushed while its long-term growth story is rebuilt. It trades at 9x earnings with a 4.64% dividend yield, controls about 80% of the GLP-1 weight-loss pill market and plans to scale oral GLP-1 capacity 10x by 2030. Revenue growth is expected to return to double digits in 2027, and it has partnered with Anthropic on drug discovery. It would need a 110% rally to regain its 200-week average. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics now has enough cash to finish its phase 3 trials, so it can hold out for a home-run acquisition offer, likely nothing below $200 a share after its positive maintenance trial. The offering added $547.8M, lifting cash to about $1B, enough for roughly 24 months at a bit over $40M of monthly burn, though phase 3 may burn faster, and possibly close to the NDA stage. Dilution of 9% from stock and 5% from converts will be worth it. x.com  x.com 

Eli Lilly's GLP-1 and metabolic franchise can compound demand and cash flows while rate fears punish leveraged AI stories. It is preferable as a defensive-growth holding into its October 29 earnings over chasing a chip bounce. Continued healthcare volume leadership would support the sleeve; if semiconductors reclaim leadership first, the rotation is already crowded the other way. x.com  x.com