Viking Therapeutics is a beaten-down stock with good news. It has great Phase 1 data and more capital, after a 33% decline from recent highs. x.com  x.com 

Viking Therapeutics now has enough cash to finish its phase 3 trials, so it can hold out for a home-run acquisition offer, likely nothing below $200 a share after its positive maintenance trial. The offering added $547.8M, lifting cash to about $1B, enough for roughly 24 months at a bit over $40M of monthly burn, though phase 3 may burn faster, and possibly close to the NDA stage. Dilution of 9% from stock and 5% from converts will be worth it. x.com  x.com 

A crowded obesity-drug market could leave Viking Therapeutics fighting for fewer patients at much lower prices. Viking's CEO said a potential launch is about two and a half years away; in three years, Viking could be just another competitor. Hepatitis C blockbusters from many companies once faced too few patients to treat, a warning for long-term holders. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Viking Therapeutics gets zero credit for what has long looked like a top obesity drug. In its VK2735 maintenance study, patients switched to less-frequent dosing, including monthly, kept up to about 97% of prior weight loss and reached about 22% total over 33 weeks, addressing the weight-regain concern. The results came a day after Novo Nordisk signaled bigger obesity M&A, reviving takeout speculation, yet no one has bought Viking. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oral Wegovy removes one of the biggest barriers to GLP-1 adoption, yet investors are still sleeping on Novo Nordisk even though prescription data already show the launch going very well. Per @agingroy, Ozempic and Mounjaro generated $71 billion in 2025, more than OpenAI and Anthropic's combined $29 billion, and only about 2% of the 800 million eligible patients can currently access them. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics is just another GLP-1 drug in a sea of many and will get crushed commercially by the big drugmakers. In a biotech bubble, only companies with a broad, diverse pipeline of potential blockbusters are worth owning. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics' large short position sets up a squeeze, since great news would leave those shorts in big trouble. The daily chart shows a bullish ascending triangle. x.com 

Novo Nordisk is an excellent stock to accumulate gradually after falling more than 70% from its peak, with 2026 looking like a near-term bottom. At about $40.50 it trades at 11-12 times forward earnings, below peers, and analyst targets of $57-65 imply 40-60% upside. Indirect April data show 25mg oral Wegovy beating rivals on weight loss with milder side effects. An OpenAI drug-discovery alliance, a DKK 15 billion buyback, a 4.45% dividend yield and gross margins above 82% add support. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics selling shares at $35 caps its upside; it should accept a buyout at double that price instead. It priced 7.85 million shares at $35 alongside $225 million of 2% convertible notes due 2032, after upsizing both offerings from $200 million. x.com 

Novo Nordisk trades at its lowest valuation ever, about 7x earnings, in the same year it launched one of the most in-demand oral medications in the world. Competition from Eli Lilly is a real headwind, but even if Novo's oral market share fell to 50% it should do fine, and an expected 1-3% earnings drop next year hardly justifies 7x. Novo should still be competing at a similar scale in seven years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com