A crowded obesity-drug market could leave Viking Therapeutics fighting for fewer patients at much lower prices. Viking's CEO said a potential launch is about two and a half years away; in three years, Viking could be just another competitor. Hepatitis C blockbusters from many companies once faced too few patients to treat, a warning for long-term holders. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Viking Therapeutics is just another GLP-1 drug in a sea of many and will get crushed commercially by the big drugmakers. In a biotech bubble, only companies with a broad, diverse pipeline of potential blockbusters are worth owning. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics now has enough cash to finish its phase 3 trials, so it can hold out for a home-run acquisition offer, likely nothing below $200 a share after its positive maintenance trial. The offering added $547.8M, lifting cash to about $1B, enough for roughly 24 months at a bit over $40M of monthly burn, though phase 3 may burn faster, and possibly close to the NDA stage. Dilution of 9% from stock and 5% from converts will be worth it. x.com  x.com 

Voyager Technologies' nearly 20% drop on a $350M convertible note offering looks excessive for a business that was always going to need substantial capital. It is fundamentally capital intensive, so if it executes this won't be its last raise. Dilution matters a lot, but it shouldn't surprise anyone here. @wealthmatica, who flagged the stock, senses a buying opportunity soon. x.com 

Cipher Mining's convertible notes cap intermediate-term upside at around $22. Raising $775M through an ATM while shares were in the $20s would have caused less dilution and avoided forward share-price risk; doing this deal at $11 instead was terribly timed. The stock is not worth touching here. x.com  x.com 

Viking Therapeutics is a beaten-down stock with good news. It has great Phase 1 data and more capital, after a 33% decline from recent highs. x.com  x.com 

WhiteFiber's latest raise is even more brutal for holders. Its convertible notes offering grew from $250 million to $310 million with the full option exercised, about a third of its market cap after the upsize. It is the second raise this year, at a higher coupon than January's, and roughly $118 million goes straight to repaying the January notes. x.com  x.com 

Viking Therapeutics' large short position sets up a squeeze, since great news would leave those shorts in big trouble. The daily chart shows a bullish ascending triangle. x.com 

Viking Therapeutics holds the most valuable obesity peptide real estate outside Eli Lilly, making it a $100 stock in plain sight. VK2735 keeps producing compelling injectable and oral data, with the oral candidate surprising many and looking more competitive than Novo's oral program. Big Pharma badly needs differentiated obesity assets and Viking is one of few quality independents left, so a buyout would be no surprise and a bidding war could send it to $100+ fast. Alone it is a 3-5x story. … Show more

Viking Therapeutics gets zero credit for what has long looked like a top obesity drug. In its VK2735 maintenance study, patients switched to less-frequent dosing, including monthly, kept up to about 97% of prior weight loss and reached about 22% total over 33 weeks, addressing the weight-regain concern. The results came a day after Novo Nordisk signaled bigger obesity M&A, reviving takeout speculation, yet no one has bought Viking. x.com  x.com  x.com