Viking Therapeutics' large short position sets up a squeeze, since great news would leave those shorts in big trouble. The daily chart shows a bullish ascending triangle. x.comÂ
Andy Heilman
Principal Owner of MH & Associates
Viking Therapeutics is a beaten-down stock with good news. It has great Phase 1 data and more capital, after a 33% decline from recent highs. x.com x.comÂ
Viking Therapeutics now has enough cash to finish its phase 3 trials, so it can hold out for a home-run acquisition offer, likely nothing below $200 a share after its positive maintenance trial. The offering added $547.8M, lifting cash to about $1B, enough for roughly 24 months at a bit over $40M of monthly burn, though phase 3 may burn faster, and possibly close to the NDA stage. Dilution of 9% from stock and 5% from converts will be worth it. x.com x.comÂ
A crowded obesity-drug market could leave Viking Therapeutics fighting for fewer patients at much lower prices. Viking's CEO said a potential launch is about two and a half years away; in three years, Viking could be just another competitor. Hepatitis C blockbusters from many companies once faced too few patients to treat, a warning for long-term holders. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Viking Therapeutics holds the most valuable obesity peptide real estate outside Eli Lilly, making it a $100 stock in plain sight. VK2735 keeps producing compelling injectable and oral data, with the oral candidate surprising many and looking more competitive than Novo's oral program. Big Pharma badly needs differentiated obesity assets and Viking is one of few quality independents left, so a buyout would be no surprise and a bidding war could send it to $100+ fast. Alone it is a 3-5x story. … Show more
Viking Therapeutics gets zero credit for what has long looked like a top obesity drug. In its VK2735 maintenance study, patients switched to less-frequent dosing, including monthly, kept up to about 97% of prior weight loss and reached about 22% total over 33 weeks, addressing the weight-regain concern. The results came a day after Novo Nordisk signaled bigger obesity M&A, reviving takeout speculation, yet no one has bought Viking. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Viking Therapeutics selling shares at $35 caps its upside; it should accept a buyout at double that price instead. It priced 7.85 million shares at $35 alongside $225 million of 2% convertible notes due 2032, after upsizing both offerings from $200 million. x.comÂ
Borealis Foods is set up for a short squeeze continuation. Short interest is about 335%, Fintel and Robinhood show no shares left to borrow, and volume has run about 100x normal, exceeding the entire share count in a day. A break above the high of day at $2.42 would confirm the next leg. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Recursion Pharmaceuticals is set up for a short squeeze after breaking out of a falling wedge, with 174M shares sold short. Average volume over the last 10 days has fallen to 11.6M, pushing days to cover up to 15. x.comÂ
Viking Therapeutics is just another GLP-1 drug in a sea of many and will get crushed commercially by the big drugmakers. In a biotech bubble, only companies with a broad, diverse pipeline of potential blockbusters are worth owning. x.comÂ
Iradimed has a setup for a move higher: a nice chart, high short interest and a biotech catalyst. Whether it gets follow-through remains to be seen. x.comÂ